Re-opening the door

China, the US, the Philippines, India, Pakistan, Israel, Palestine, and gold.

View of the American Garden, Canton, unknown artist, c. 1844, gouache and pen on paper, Peabody Essex Museum, Salem, Mass.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• CHINA. UNITED STATES. Economics trumps security as the truce is extended.

• CHINA. THE PHILIPPINES. Spats on fishing and Taiwan crash together.

• INDIA. PAKISTAN. Tensions rise as the US divides.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Humanitarian outrage dominates strategic decisions.

• PRECIOUS METALS. Tariffs, seizures and market risk drive a race to hard assets.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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CHINA. UNITED STATES. Chips with everything

Economics trumps security as the truce is extended.

Washington extended a truce on Chinese duties by another 90 days Monday, with Beijing announcing the same Tuesday. Donald Trump said he may allow Nvidia to sell cutting-edge chips to China in a "somewhat enhanced-in-a-negative-way".

INTELLIGENCE. Even with reduced processing power – Trump has mused 30-50% – Nvidia's Blackwell GPUs represent a key advantage in US competitiveness. Selling these to China either demonstrates a willingness to dump years of "small yard, high fence" policies on technology transfer, an interest in clipping the ticket (after reports the US will take 15% of revenues for Nvidia's sales of lesser H20 chips), or both. Trump described the H20 as “obsolete”.

FOR BUSINESS. Washington had, until recently, been bipartisan in seeking to deprive Beijing of the most advanced AI technologies. But Silicon Valley exiles advising the White House, led by venture capitalist David Sacks, have changed the president’s mind on getting China “addicted” to US tech and somehow beating incumbents like Huawei in their home market. The strategic logic is doubtful, but economically, this could add another leg to high Nasdaq valuations.

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CHINA. THE PHILIPPINES. Crowded waters

Spats on fishing and Taiwan crash together.

China's coast guard Monday said it had expelled Filipino fishermen from the South China Sea's Scarborough Shoal. Manila released footage of Chinese ships colliding. Ferdinand Marcos Jr said he had been "misinterpreted" on Taiwan.

INTELLIGENCE. Beijing had accused Maros of "playing with fire" after he told media