Reciprocity for disaster
The US, the EU, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, and South Africa.
The five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. Trump's tariffs risk going from bluff to blunder.
EUROPEAN UNION. Pressure on trade, Ukraine and Gaza comes to bear.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Zelensky is seemingly left out of talks on his country’s future.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. MBS has the ball in his court.
SOUTH AFRICA. Trump’s Afrikaner offer will lose friends across the continent.
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UNITED STATES. Tit-for-tatters
Trump's tariffs risk going from bluff to blunder.
Donald Trump said Sunday he would introduce 25% tariffs on aluminium and steel, with "reciprocal" tariffs on all countries to follow. In a separate interview, Trump said Mexico and Canada's border actions were "not good enough."
INTELLIGENCE. Canada is the US’s biggest source of aluminium and steel. The measure seems aimed at Ottawa as much as the US rustbelt, whose economic transformation to more high-end industries (data centres, chip plants) will only be stymied by the measure. The reciprocal proposal is more worrying and could upend WTO rules, leading to a trade war of all against all. Markets seem hopeful Trump is bluffing, but unlike last week, the offramps are less clear.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump’s threats against Mexico and Canada could be dismissed because it was predictable who would fold. A universal escalation against all countries on all goods will not only be administratively onerous but could provoke unexpected reactions. The US is not the only economy with anti-trade voters or a populist leader. And many of these economies are poor ones that rely on tariffs to protect job-absorbing sectors and thus social harmony.
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EUROPEAN UNION. Centre of attention
Pressure on trade, Ukraine and Gaza comes to bear.
Ursula von der Leyen said the need for pan-European defence was "evident" Sunday as she welcomed the connection of Baltic countries to the EU grid as "freedom from threats." JD Vance travelled to Paris for the first of several summits.
INTELLIGENCE. Vance will only be the first of many US officials to visit this week. Brussels and national capitals alike