Red Sea cross purposes
Yemen, South Africa, the US, the Joint Strike Fighter program, and Serbia.
The five things you need to know today:
YEMEN. Trump launches an attack he may struggle to contain.
SOUTH AFRICA. The expulsion of an envoy chills Washington’s diplomatic corps.
UNITED STATES. By dismantling the ONA, the Pentagon blindsides itself.
JOINT STRIKE FIGHTER. Allies back away from the F-35 program.
SERBIA. Anti-government protests keep building.
Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.
YEMEN. Hou started it
Trump launches an attack he may struggle to contain.
The US said it would continue targeting Yemen's Houthis until attacks on Red Sea shipping ceased. At least 53 had been killed since Donald Trump ordered airstrikes Saturday. The militia vowed retaliation. The IDF was placed on high alert.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump was right to say the Houthis had been unrestrained, but Joe Biden’s "pathetically weak" response to the group, which rules a population of almost 25 million, was due more to poor options than ineptitude. As Trump may find, neutralising $20,000 drones with $2 million missiles is uneconomic. And after Saudi Arabia’s 75,000 strikes between 2015 and 2022, plus a land invasion, the Houthis have shown resistance to being deterred.
FOR BUSINESS. One of the Trump administration’s first foreign policy acts was to designate the Houthis as a terrorist group. Yet, running most of Yemen, and as successors to its 1000-year monarchy, they operate more like a state. Though backed by Iran and opposed to Israel, they’re more interested in recognition. Now isn’t the time for diplomacy, but by going after them militarily, Trump risks further endangering Red Sea shipping, at least in the short term.
Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.
SOUTH AFRICA. Personal non grata
The expulsion of an envoy chills Washington’s diplomatic corps.
Marco Rubio declared Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool persona non grata and a "race-baiting politician who hates America" Friday. Rubio posted an article where Rasool was quoted as saying Trump had used "white victimhood as a dog whistle".
INTELLIGENCE. Rasool’s comments, to a Johannesburg think tank, may have been ill-judged for a serving diplomat,