Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
SAUDI ARABIA. YEMEN. The Houthis capture Bab-el-Mandeb.
ISRAEL. UAE. An un-alliance provokes the region.
CHINA. INDIA. Xi visits Delhi to play statesman.
IRELAND. Trump visits Doonbeg to play golf.
FRANCE. Le Pen keeps her fellow travellers at a distance.
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SAUDI ARABIA. YEMEN. Perim capita
The Houthis capture Bab-el-Mandeb.
Brent futures spiked above $108 as Yemen’s Houthi rebels confirmed control of the port of Mokha and allegedly took the island of Perim in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. Donald Trump declined Saudi Arabia’s request for assistance, Axios said.
INTELLIGENCE. Neither the jump in crude, nor reported strikes along the main Saudi pipeline to Yanbu, seem to have been enough to sway US involvement. Having already TACOed to the Houthis last year, Trump will see this as a problem for Riyadh’s new allies in Ankara and Islamabad to solve. Yet his inaction also reflects depleted US munitions, and the increasingly dire situation in Hormuz. Riyadh may need to give the Houthis what they ask for.
FOR BUSINESS. The Houthis are an Iranian ally, but have longstanding aims, namely diplomatic recognition and an end to Saudi backing for the rump regime in Aden. Their capture of the coast may have been aided by Iran, but has been brewing for years. Their precursor, the Kingdom of Yemen, predates the modern Saudi state. The Zaydi Imams before that ruled from the ninth century. The Houthis will likely welcome ships back to the Red Sea, but for a price.
ISRAEL. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. Abraham-fisted
An un-alliance provokes the region.
Algeria cut ties with the UAE Thursday, citing “provocative or hostile” actions. Israel caused a 4.1-magnitude earthquake after blowing up Hezbollah tunnels in southern Lebanon. Morocco and Israel denied culpability in Spain’s Ceuta crisis.
INTELLIGENCE. Partners under Jared Kushner’s Abraham Accords, Israel and the