Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. The game of chicken is starting to play up.
UNITED STATES. Trump provokes a rise from the Democrats.
RUSSIA. UKRAINE. Talks in Florida favour Moscow, not Kyiv.
EUROPE. CHINA. The EU’s envoy tries speaking truth to power.
AUSTRALIA. SINGAPORE. AI warnings from the Antipodes.
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IRAN. Oil pressure
The game of chicken is starting to play up.
Donald Trump said he would not attack Iran “at any time prior to the midterm elections” after the New York Times said a three-day campaign was being prepared and the State Department issued a security alert. Brent remained above $102.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump’s trial balloon of a pre-midterms strike may seem to have burst, but his TACO – paired with the claim of “productive discussions” with Iran – has failed to give any market relief. Pizza store traffic near the Pentagon remained busy overnight. Israeli media continues to report of military preparations. Channel 12 said IDF chief Eyal Zamir told US generals that another attack could force Israel’s election to be postponed. There’s an idea.
FOR BUSINESS. With the costs of US inaction now possibly the same or lower than those of escalation, Trump may yet pull the trigger before 3 November. More reports of tanker attacks overnight will add to the pressure, as will any disruptions to domestic oil production due to Hurricane Isaias. Lower than expected crude stocks, amid uncertainty over how much the International Energy Agency has actually agreed to release, add to the president’s dilemma.
UNITED STATES. Double dare
Trump provokes a rise from the Democrats.
ICE agents shot a Bronx man with a five-year-old in the car. The Pentagon said it would livestream its first firing-squad execution since 1945. Trump urged Minnesotans to "fight" Somali migrants, who “view you as weak and stupid people”.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump is goading his opponents to defend, respectively, the rights of