An earlier version of this email had the second dispatch missing. Apologies.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. As Washington says one thing, Tehran says another.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Moscow remobilises for war and peace.
BRITAIN. Burnham starts to make mincemeat out of Brexit.
BELGIUM. De Wever may have reached the end of the line.
DR CONGO. RWANDA. The US steps up a cold war in a hot place.
🇺🇸It’s the US midterms today. Join our subscriber webinars this Thursday (US) and Friday (Europe, Asia) for the full analysis on what this means for you.🇺🇸
IRAN. The feeling ain’t mutual
As Washington says one thing, Tehran says another.
Donald Trump said oil was “dropping like a rock” as “people feel that there will not be a war with Iran.” JD Vance said he and Trump “feel pretty good” about a deal. The US hit Qeshm Island after Iran claimed to have downed three US aircraft.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump has claimed to be close to a deal for eight months. Oil falls each time, then quickly rebounds. If there is a silver lining, it’s that Tehran has reportedly amended its offer to allow Hormuz to reopen within two days, not seven, but the conditions for doing so are presumably the same (the US leaving the region; economic reparations; no nuclear limits). This may be better than Trump nuking Pickaxe Mountain, but it doesn’t mean it’s any more likely.
FOR BUSINESS. Iran is not incentivised to give Trump a pre-midterms gift. If it did, the price would be great. More likely, it will continue to make the US economy suffer until he capitulates or leaves office. And while Iran’s economy is also suffering, it has decades of experience. Lifelines via Russia continue. Some of its oil escapes via Pakistan. China continues to provide political cover. As Oman’s sultan visited Monday, Beijing said it would soon send an envoy.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. At Witkoff’s end
Moscow remobilises for war and peace.
Kyiv said Moscow had used Melania Trump’s humanitarian ceasefire in southern Kherson to regroup and was plotting a “massive strike” during the midterms. Steve Witkoff said he would host trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi next Tuesday.