Rhymes with lame duck
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, North Africa, India, China, and grain markets.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump becomes the new hostage of Tehran.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Netanyahu exercises his veto on Hormuz.
NORTH AFRICA. A redrawn Middle East looks west.
INDIA. CHINA. Both sides risk a mountain out of a border dispute.
GRAIN. Soft commodities and hard choices.
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IRAN. Carter without the peanuts
Trump becomes the new hostage of Tehran.
Tehran denied claims from mediator Islamabad that it was close to a deal with Washington, and suggested it would hold Hormuz until 2029. Trump said the US “had total control... Praise be to Allah!” Trump’s press secretary stepped down.
INTELLIGENCE. Nobody, least of all Karoline Leavitt, wants to be linked to a loser. She didn’t join Trump’s trip to NATO, so wasn’t on his decoy plane, but the controversy around his flight from Turkey, and quagmire in Iran, may have prompted her to quit. One aide who joined Trump in the escape was aide Natalie Harp, author of his tweets. Reported tension between Leavitt and Harp may be out of context, but could be more truthful than any press release.
FOR BUSINESS. It was always possible Iran would delay to bring about US regime change, and Trump is already playing the part of an indecorous Jimmy Carter. Waiting until his successor’s inauguration, however, would deprive Tehran of revenues that even the Iran-Iraq war veterans now atop the regime would be hard pressed to ignore. A more likely timeline for compromise may be after the midterms: a point of higher leverage in both oil and munitions.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Stay of execution
Netanyahu exercises his veto on Hormuz.
Washington rebuked Israel for ordering a "long-term presence" in Lebanon Wednesday. Lebanon's prime minister accused Israel of "systematic destruction". Ambassador Mike Huckabee condemned Israeli "terrorists" in the West Bank.
INTELLIGENCE. Via his defence minister, Benjamin Netanyahu is taking a rigid