Roaring Lion wags the dog
Israel, Iran, the Gulf, the UK, France, and Canada.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
ISRAEL. IRAN. Trump’s narrative becomes the first casualty of war.
THE GULF. Tehran sends a message to the world’s soft underbelly.
BRITAIN. Sensing a threat from the left, Starmer recalibrates.
FRANCE. Macron outlines his vision for European defence.
CANADA. Carney’s middle-power push-back takes form.
ISRAEL. IRAN. Blown covenant
Trump’s narrative becomes the first casualty of war.
Ahead of a debate on war powers, Congress reacted with fury to Marco Rubio's claim that Israel had forced the US’s hand on Iran. Tucker Carlson said, without evidence, that Mossad agents were planting bombs in Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
INTELLIGENCE. Ahead of briefing Congress, Rubio said Iran’s “imminent threat” was its likely reaction to Israel’s imminent threat. Whether he meant to throw an ally under the bus, he contradicted earlier White House claims about months of joint planning, human rights, nuclear weapons, and Iran’s alleged missile range. As popular support for Israel falls below that for Palestine for the first time, the admission will only make the war even more contentious.
FOR BUSINESS. A war powers vote is unlikely to pass, but it’ll be another pre-midterms test for Trump. So too will today’s primary elections in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas, with foreign policy suddenly higher up the ballot. Allegations of Israel’s hold on Trump are also seeing a growing rift within MAGA. It’s a fissure Iran can exploit politically, even if it can’t win militarily, particularly should there be boots on the ground, as Trump now says there might be.
THE GULF. Gut punch
Tehran sends a message to the world’s soft underbelly.
A Saudi Aramco refinery and the US embassy in Riyadh were hit as Iran’s attacks escalated across the Gulf. A tanker was set ablaze as Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz shut. Three F-15s were shot down over Kuwait by "friendly fire".
INTELLIGENCE. Iran has suffered far more strikes and casualties but, per Ukraine, a