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RUSSIA. CENTRAL ASIA. ‘stan and deliver
Moscow risks another rift with its former empire.
Kyrgyzstan warned its citizens against unnecessary travel to Russia as Central Asian migrants faced a backlash following last week's Moscow terror attacks. Kazakhstan's foreign minister met Antony Blinken in Washington.
INTELLIGENCE. Russia remains Central Asia’s dominant actor, but China, the West and Turkey, among others, have eroded its economic, political, and cultural influence. Periodic backlashes against Central Asian migrants have exacerbated this trend. While Vladimir Putin needs the region strategically, politically he can ill afford to alienate Russian nationalists, who from Alexei Navalny and Yevgeny Prigozhin, have formed the greatest threat to his regime.
FOR BUSINESS. Blaming Ukraine is not just a distraction from Moscow’s security failures in the wake of the Crocus attack but allows public anger to be redirected to the West. Russia has around 20 million Muslim citizens, and there are around 4 million ethnic Russians in Central Asia, including several thousand troops in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. A pliant region also gives Moscow better options for connectivity with Beijing and Tehran, its key anti-Western allies.
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IRAN. Axis to grind
Tehran’s proxies bring it influence, as well as headaches.
Hamas's leader told his hosts in Tehran on Tuesday Israel was experiencing "unprecedented political isolation". The US denied involvement in the death of an Islamic Revolutionary Guards officer in Syria following an unclaimed airstrike.
INTELLIGENCE. With the Iran-backed “axis of resistance” making trouble for Israel, Tehran would appear to have growing sway across the Middle East. But as it struggles to cement peace with Saudi Arabia and pivot its economy to China and Russia, its network of proxies could be proving more trouble than it’s worth. Beyond the provocations of militants in Iraq, which Iran has been forced to restrain, it’s having growing trouble with the Houthis in Yemen.
FOR BUSINESS. Despite, on Tehran’s orders, promising not to target Russian and Chinese ships, the Houthis last week hit a Chinese tanker. Hezbollah has been better behaved. Its low-level conflict with Israel has complicated IDF planning in Gaza without triggering regional war. But strikes in the past day threaten to escalate. Syria has been most reliable, but even here there is stress. Under regular barrages from Israel, Damascus is now leaning closer to Riyadh.
POLAND. General theory
Conspiratorial speculation undermines European unity.
Warsaw recalled a top general from the Eurocorps command Wednesday amid an intelligence probe. Another Polish general, who served there until September, died on Tuesday. Russia's ambassador ignored a summons on Monday.
INTELLIGENCE. The Strasbourg-based Eurocorps is independent of NATO and the EU but is a key part of European defence planning and played major roles in the Balkans and Afghanistan. The incidents are almost certainly unrelated but provide fodder for disinformation amid a broader purge across the Polish government, the deaths of several troops during training exercises this month, and Kyiv’s sacking of national security chief Oleksiy Danilov on Tuesday.
FOR BUSINESS. A sense of strategic and operational chaos permeates European defence. It’s no better economically, with German stagnation dragging down Eurozone growth and farmer-led protests not only toppling key climate laws but resulting in caps on Ukrainian agricultural imports that could damage Kyiv’s war effort. Politically, a schism between Poland's president and prime minister encapsulates a divide that’s also splitting France and Germany.
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CHINA. Can’t stop Xi now
Beijing likes foreign technology but doesn’t need it.
Xi Jinping told Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte Wednesday "no force can stop China's development". At a meeting with US investors, Xi said whether China and the US cooperate or confront would have a bearing on the "destiny of mankind".
INTELLIGENCE. Beijing is worried about the short-term impact of Western technology restrictions but has reason to be sanguine about China’s ability to innovate its way to leadership in the long term. With record spending on research, plus a deep pool of basic scientific knowhow, a ban on Dutch lithography equipment or US chip designs will only have a brief effect. Still, as China transitions out of a real estate correction, the risks to jobs or growth cannot be ignored.
FOR BUSINESS. Xi would like to keep buying Western tech (on Beijing’s terms of course), but China is better placed than anyone to go it alone, particularly as its digital ecosystem encompasses a broader range of countries, including Russia and Iran, that US sanctions have isolated from global markets. That ecosystem in turn is outpacing the West in the swing markets of Africa and Latin America. It is here, not China, where Western efforts might best be deployed.
TOGO. Way to go
Togo’s parliament passes a constitutional coup.
Protests broke out in Togo's capital Lomé, after its parliament almost unanimously passed a new constitution that would allow the president to stay in office until 2031. Parliament had expired in December ahead of elections in April.
INTELLIGENCE. Togo's democracy was barely functioning, but the move – on paper, a shift to a Westminster system – will effectively allow President Faure Gnassignbe to rule like his father did since 1967. A sliver of French-speaking ex-German territory, Togo is now part of the Commonwealth and encourages the teaching of English. Economically, however, it’s moving toward China, which buys most of its phosphate. Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited in January.
FOR BUSINESS. Togo may also be moving toward Russia. Like fellow dynast in Chad, Mahamat Déby, Gnassignbe was once a reliable French ally, but has shifted to Moscow. The Kremlin sees Togo as a potential hub for activities in the Sahel and there are reportedly plans for a Russian-built railway between Lomé on the Gulf of Guinea and Tobruk on the Mediterranean. In between lie the landlocked but gold and uranium-rich juntas of Niger and Burkina Faso.