Russia, China, Iran: Axis of upheaval
Also: TikTok, Israel, Palestine, Haiti, and Senegal.
In addition to our daily risk monitoring brief, the team behind Geopolitical Dispatch also provides advice, risk audits, scenario planning, executive masterclasses and board briefings among other services. Click here to get in touch.
RUSSIA. CHINA. IRAN. Axis of upheaval
Nothing unites former foes like sanctions, and a common enemy.
Joint drills began Tuesday between the Russian, Chinese and Iranian navies. The BRICS announced plans to build a blockchain-based payments system. Russia's rail network reported a 40% rise in cargo bids following Red Sea attacks.
INTELLIGENCE. The Ukraine war has isolated Russia from Western markets. Middle Eastern conflicts have integrated Russia into China-Europe transit links. The slow rise of a Eurasian bloc, to date signified by toothless forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, may now be taking shape, with its key centres – Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran – united by shared opposition to the West. Such alliances have previously proven brittle, but today may be an exception.
FOR BUSINESS. The US and Europe have good reasons to apply trade and financial restrictions on Russia and its friends. Yet with sanctioned markets – many of which are members of the BRICS – now forming a critical mass, a parallel global economy is feasible for the first time since the end of the Cold War. Structures like the Belt and Road and the Eurasian Economic Union may have so far failed to take hold, but the conditions and impetus remain.
Geopolitical Strategy is the advisory firm behind Geopolitical Dispatch. Our partners are former diplomats with vast experience in international affairs, risk management, and public affairs. We help businesses and investors to understand geopolitical developments and their impacts with clarity and concision.
UNITED STATES. CHINA. TikTok goes the clock
A tech ownership debate gets close to the election.
Congress will vote Wednesday on whether to force TikTok's parent to sell the app or face a ban. Joe Biden said Friday he would sign any such bill that reaches his desk. Donald Trump warned against a ban, saying it would only help Meta.
INTELLIGENCE. Countering China has been a rare point of bipartisanship in Congress, but Trump’s intervention puts a ban or forced sale into doubt. Despite record tech valuations, plenty of US firms have the interest and ability to buy TikTok from Beijing-based ByteDance. Yet many of these firms, including OpenAI and Meta, are almost as distrusted. Trump told users on his own platform Truth Social that Meta’s Facebook was the “true Enemy of the People!”.
FOR BUSINESS. A TikTok sale has been opposed by many business groups, including the Republican-aligned Club for Growth. National security hawks have slammed this as politically cynical, but it’s unclear what a TikTok sale would achieve that existing regulations don’t. Foreign interference and disinformation exists on all platforms (as does addictive, brain-numbing content). And as US politics shows, Beijing does not have a monopoly on mania or lies.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Dark side of the Moon
US influence wanes as Ramadan begins.
Ramadan began Monday, with the crescent moon seen over Mecca Sunday night. Israel said it was investigating whether top Hamas official Marwan Issa had been killed. Benjamin Netanyahu said US criticism encouraged Hamas.
INTELLIGENCE. Joe Biden’s public disapproval of Netanyahu, and pledge to build a pier off Gaza, may have calmed some in his Democrat base, but the White House has shown the limits of its leverage with Israel. An arms embargo or withdrawal of diplomatic support is all but certain to never be deployed. Most US voters support Israel and any change in policy could backfire in an election year. What’s left of the war will be largely conducted on Israel’s terms.
FOR BUSINESS. What happens the day after Hamas’s military wing is defeated is the big question. The terms of the peace, more than the conduct of the war, will likely determine the return of Arab-Israeli rapprochement and Israel’s economic recovery. The complicating factor is Israel’s domestic politics, where Netanyahu balances intractable extremists and recalcitrant moderates, including Benny Gantz, who is seemingly now the US’s preferred interlocutor.
Emailed each weekday at 5am Eastern (9am GMT), Geopolitical Dispatch goes beyond the news to outline the implications. With the brevity of a media digest, but the depth of an intelligence assessment, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you the strategic framing and situational awareness to stay ahead in a changing world.
HAITI. No barbecue stopper
Words alone won’t end a catastrophe.
Regional leaders met in Jamaica Monday, with the US pledging an extra $100 million to a multinational mission in Haiti and $33 million in aid. The US evacuated embassy staff Sunday. The prime minister resigned pending a “transition”.
INTELLIGENCE. Haiti’s gangs, which now run much of the capital and are fighting near the airport and national palace, demanded Ariel Henry resign, with top leader Jimmy 'Barbecue' Cherizier vowing civil war and “genocide” if the prime minister returned. In the meantime, regional diplomats are talking in circles over a Kenyan-led police deployment. In years past, the US would have intervened in a crisis this close to its shores (and 100 miles from Guantanamo).
FOR BUSINESS. Henry’s resignation means little without a pathway to stable government. With the UN-backed deployment going nowhere, the US will need to decide whether to send its own forces or tolerate a failed state on its southern approaches. A gang-run Haiti meanwhile risks confidence in the region’s tourist economy, including the cruise lines still calling at Labadee in Haiti’s north. Stops at the privately-run port were paused during the 2004 coup.
SENEGAL. Mack on track
Elections resume, but largely on the president’s terms.
Opposition figure Karim Wade, the son of a former president, asked the courts to delay Senegal's rescheduled election on 24 March, due to limited preparation time. Wade and other key opposition leaders have been barred from running.
INTELLIGENCE. Incumbent Macky Sall is also not running, due to term limits, but his preferred candidate, former prime minister Amadou Ba, is likely to enter the race should the polls not be delayed again. Sall earlier cancelled a 25 February date, leading to widespread protests and institutional pushback. Yet a shortened list of candidates still won't mean Sall’s Alliance for the Republic will lose. Many of Senegal’s most popular political aspirants are in prison.
FOR BUSINESS.A smooth election, let alone a smooth transition, isn't assured. In the meantime, many of Senegal's Europe-backed investments are in doubt. Growth is projected to average 8.5% annually out to 2029, thanks to recent energy discoveries, but one candidate, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, has promised to review the country's oil and gas contracts, as well as its mining licenses. He has also pledged to follow Sahelian neighbours in leaving the CFA franc.