Russia: Lucky tsar
Also: Israel, Lebanon, Egypt, the EU, Turkey, Iraq, and Niger.
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RUSSIA. Lucky tsar
Putin's re-anointment goes better than expected.
Vladimir Putin had won 87.8% on a 74% turnout in Russia’s election, exit polls showed Sunday. Putin brushed aside criticism, saying the world was laughing at the US's own "catastrophic" election choice between Trump and Biden..
INTELLIGENCE. While the vote was neither free nor fair, Putin is genuinely popular and will see the result – a post-Soviet record – as vindication on Ukraine and Russia's broader ambitions. With the economy emerging from the war arguably stronger, the average Russian is rallying around the flag despite a small number of protests magnified by Western media. Even Belgorod, which is under fire from Ukrainian reprisals, voted strongly for Putin, at over 95%.
FOR BUSINESS. This is not just a re-election but a step toward total control. No Russian leader since Stalin has had such authority. With his public image imbued with tsarist symbolism and facing no threats to his rule, Putin could now be compelled to take greater risks. New flashpoints are emerging. Pro-Russian Transnistria, in Moldova, claimed Sunday to be under Ukrainian attack. South Ossetia, in Georgia, said it might hold a referendum on joining Russia.
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ISRAEL. LEBANON. North and south
As fighting rages in Gaza, signs of peace on the Blue Line.
Israel would proceed with plans to attack Rafah, Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday, as the IDF fired on Gaza's al-Shifa hospital. A French border proposal could end hostilities with Israel, a leaked Lebanese document suggested Friday.
INTELLIGENCE. Despite ongoing hostage talks and US interventions, the prospects for a truce in Gaza look bleaker by the day. Despite escalating rocket attacks to and from Israel’s north, the prospects for de-escalation with Hezbollah look brighter. Strategic leaks from the government in Beirut and the Shiite militia suggest a push for peace. Hezbollah has reportedly told Iran it wants to “fight alone”: code for decoupling from Tehran’s pro-Hamas resistance.
FOR BUSINESS. A deal with Hezbollah, whether directly or via Beirut, makes sense for all sides. Whatever leverage Hezbollah once had over Israel has evaporated as the war in Gaza drives towards a certain defeat for Hamas. Hezbollah’s allies in Damascus have shown little sign of solidarity, despite multiple attacks on Syrian soil. Israel, meanwhile, is struggling to house the civilians it’s evacuated from the north without further costs to the economy.
EGYPT. EUROPE. The extra Nile
Brussels gives Cairo an undeserving bailout.
The EU pledged €7.4 billion and a "strategic partnership" with Egypt Sunday as part of a deal to control migration and shore up Cairo's mediation efforts in Gaza. Dozens were arrested Friday after rare protests broke out in Alexandria.
INTELLIGENCE. Following a similar deal with Tunisia, Europe is paying Egypt to keep its citizens, and any third-country migrants, from attempting to cross the Mediterranean. The announcement follows the expansion of a separate IMF program last week, plus recent reports on major investment boosts from Saudi Arabia and the UAE in exchange for strategic coastal real estate. Yet Cairo has proven itself spendthrift. It may prove similarly unreliable on migration.
FOR BUSINESS. Few boats have left Egypt. Instead, Egypt has allowed thousands to cross into Libya, where voyages are launched daily. Egypt has meanwhile squandered its meagre resources on pharaonic mega-projects, such as a new capital in the desert, which provide lucrative contracts for military-linked firms. Inflation is running at almost 36% and revenues from the Suez Canal have dried up. The recently devalued Egyptian pound is trading at record lows.
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TURKEY. IRAQ. Route cause
Ankara gets a deal that goes beyond the Kurds.
Police detained 50 at Kurdish new year celebrations in Istanbul Sunday. A pro-Kurdish politician accused President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of equating Kurds with terrorists Friday, as parties campaigned for local elections on 31 March.
INTELLIGENCE. The issue of Kurdish separatism routinely appears at Turkish elections and the threat of Kurdish terrorism is real (among threats from others, including Islamic State and far-left militants, which have been behind recent high-profile attacks). Yet the cause of Kurdish separatism was given a decisive blow when Iraq outlawed the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) on Thursday. The PKK has used northern Iraq as a longstanding base of operations.
FOR BUSINESS. The PKK is historically aligned with Iraqi Kurdistan, who under the 2005 constitution have provided each of Iraq’s presidents. But as the US looks to exit Iraq and US-allied Kurdish forces in Syria are abandoned, the outlook for the region’s Kurds looks dicey. Beyond ethnic politics, Baghdad is eyeing major infrastructure investments from Turkey, which could also fill a US-sized hole. Ankara in turn hopes to get direct access to the Persian Gulf.
THE SAHEL. Off base
The US is kicked out of Niger.
Niger's military junta revoked its agreement with the US Saturday, in an alleged response to State Department pressure on the sale of uranium to Iran. Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso last week agreed to form a new anti-jihadist joint force.
INTELLIGENCE. After France was expelled last year, the US managed to retain its 650 personnel in Niger’s north as part of an essential counter-terrorism effort. Washington’s ejection now vacates the space to Russia, though it remains to be seen if the remnants of Wagner’s mercenary force can fully counter Islamic State in the terror group’s fastest-growing theatre. Le Monde reports the US may now decamp to French bases in Senegal and the Ivory Coast.
FOR BUSINESS. The retention of French influence in Senegal is now even more vital, though this too is uncertain. Senegal’s elections on 24 March became less predictable Thursday after several opposition figures were released. A waning Western presence is compounded by Nigeria’s troubled ties in the Sahel. Despite lifting sanctions and reopening the Nigerien border Wednesday, Abuja’s enfeebled government is losing its traditional diplomatic sway.