Russia, the US: Start of the deal
Also: the Caucasus, Venezuela, the Koreas, and Japan.
In today’s dispatch:
RUSSIA. UNITED STATES. Biden shows you don’t need a trump card with Putin.
THE CAUCASUS. Turkey offers Armenia normalisation for peace with Azerbaijan.
VENEZUELA. The region is once again split over Maduro.
KOREAN PENINSULA. The summer may bring a thaw in hostilities.
JAPAN. The party’s over for Japanese equities.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
RUSSIA. UNITED STATES. Start of the deal
Biden shows you don’t need a trump card with Putin.
Russia and Belarus released 16 detainees, and the US and four European governments released ten in the biggest prisoner swap since the Cold War. The exchange occurred at the Ankara Airport Thursday with Turkey mediating.
INTELLIGENCE. The deal is a coup for Turkey, which has proven its strategic ambivalence to be again of use, as well as Joe Biden, who has struggled to regain the initiative on Russia amid talk of ceasefire in Ukraine. And after Donald Trump’s claims only he could negotiate the release of reporter Evan Gershkovich, the most high-profile detainee, it is another blow for the Republican candidate following a series of campaign setbacks, most of them self-inflicted.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump has questioned whether the US paid for the release (as he has claimed regarding a deal last year to unfreeze Iranian funds from Iraq). We’ll likely never know, but either way it was a bargain for Vladimir Putin, with several high-profile Russian prisoners released. What it’s not a good deal for are travelling business executives. Hostage diplomacy has become a frequent tool of statecraft not just in Russia, but China, Iran and elsewhere.
THE CAUCASUS. Two for one
Turkey offers Armenia normalisation for peace with Azerbaijan.
Turkey will open its border with Armenia if a deal is made with Azerbaijan, Ankara said Thursday. The EU hosted talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan in July, Politico said. Russian troops finalised their withdrawal from Yerevan's airport..
INTELLIGENCE. Turkey not only hopes to have Armenia do a deal with it and Azerbaijan at the same time, but interrupt Armenia’s drift to the West as