Russia: Tragedy, then farce
Also: Slovakia, Senegal, Japan, and Argentina.
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RUSSIA. Tragedy, then farce
An attack at a Moscow theatre repeats several histories.
Four gunmen attacked concertgoers at a Moscow venue Friday night, killing at least 130. A statement attributed to Islamic State claimed responsibility. Vladimir Putin said Kyiv had prepared for the perpetrators to reach the border.
INTELLIGENCE. The attack echoed the 2002 Dubrovka theatre crisis and the 2004 Beslan school siege. Claimed by IS’s Afghan affiliate, using Tajik assailants, it also echoed more recent terror strikes in Russia and beyond. Suggestions of a link to Ukraine seem absurd, but pro-Kremlin analysts have noted the strike didn’t follow a typical suicide pattern, the assailants were (allegedly) paid, and IS used a discontinued media template in its announcement.
FOR BUSINESS. Any attack on Russian soil, and there have been several, weakens Putin’s authority. A narrative linking the atrocity to Kyiv will be used to justify further reprisals. Missile strikes on Kyiv have increased since a series of bombings on Russian infrastructure and incursions into border districts. Some Russians have begun to blame the West, citing a US embassy warning on 7 Marchthat extremists planned to target large gatherings, including concerts.
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SLOVAKIA. Sans Pellegrini
A pro-EU candidate does better than expected.
Former foreign minister Ivan Korcok won a surprise 42.1% of votes in Slovakia's presidential elections Sunday. Populist favourite and parliamentary speaker Peter Pellegrini, an ally of Prime Minister Robert Fico, received 37.3% of votes.
INTELLIGENCE. A run-off will be held on 6 April. Pellegrini remains most likely to win – the 11.8% of votes that went to a third-place pro-Russian challenger will likely go to him – but the race is now tighter than expected. Korcok ran as an independent but is aligned with the centrist Freedom and Solidarity party, which until 2022 was part of a coalition government. Pellegrini is head of Voice, a left-wing nationalist spin-off of Fico's Direction-Social Democracy party.
FOR BUSINESS. Like Freedom and Solidarity, Voice is also pro-European, but Pellegrini has been accused of courting pro-Russian votes. In contrast to the far-right in Western Europe, it is on the left where many of formerly communist Eastern Europe’s pro-Russian voters congregate. This is also a phenomenon in the former East Germany, where ex-Die Linke firebrand Sahra Wagenknecht is today courting support from both the Social Democrats and the AfD.
SENEGAL. Dakar’s tally
A potential win for the pan-Africanist opposition.
Several of 19 presidential candidates congratulated Bassirou Diomaye Faye Monday, as early tallies from Sunday's presidential election suggested the ex-tax inspector could win without needing a run-off. Final results are due Tuesday.
INTELLIGENCE. Even if a second round is held, the election is now Faye’s to lose, with the anti-corruption campaigner receiving an outpouring of sympathy votes following his release from jail (alongside several other candidates) on 15 March. If Faye does have a rival, it’s another former tax inspector, Ousmane Sonko, whom Faye replaced as their PASTEF party’s candidate when Sonko was jailed for “corrupting youth”. Sonko has, however, endorsed Faye.
FOR BUSINESS. The result is a rejection of President Macky Sall, who, while not running, had tried to delay the vote and position ex-prime minister Amadou Ba as successor. It is a testament to Senegal’s institutions, and its Western funders, who have demanded a transparent process. Yet ultimately Faye may complicate Western interests. In addition to campaigning on reform, he wants to reduce French influence and align with other pan-Africanist regimes.
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JAPAN. Turning point-by-point
Tokyo gingerly steps into a new era.
The US and Japan will announce their biggest lift to defence ties in 60 years, the Financial Times said Sunday. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida wanted a summit with Kim Jong Un, Pyongyang claimed. Kishida's approval rating rose to 26%.
INTELLIGENCE. Continuing the legacy of the late Shinzo Abe, Kishida is seeking to boost Japan’s geopolitical sway through increased defence spending, bolder diplomacy, a softer line on South Korea, and a sharper stance on China. Yet the moves appear more an accumulation of baby steps, rather than a break with the past. In monetary policy, last week’s piecemeal rise in interest rate targets – to 0-0.1%, from -0.1% – has meanwhile been met with a fall in the yen.
FOR BUSINESS. Tokyo and the Bank of Japan will have to act more decisively to lift Kishida’s ratings, or the yen. But until Japan has a credible opposition, or industries begin to suffer from a cheap currency (if anything, it’s supporting a record stock market) the caution will continue. Wildcards remain with China and North Korea, but despite the latter’s recent bellicosity on the South, there’s signs they too will prize careful re-engagement over aggressive point scoring.
ARGENTINA. Milei-industrial complex
Hampered by Congress, the president turns to investors and the military.
Human rights activists decried Javier Milei Sunday after he questioned the narrative of Argentina's 1976 coup. Officials Thursday said the government would soon propose legislation to give the military a greater role in domestic security.
INTELLIGENCE. Thousands of mostly left-wing protesters demonstrated Sunday on the coup's anniversary. Javier's statement was probably designed to merely antagonise the Peronist opposition, who are blocking his economic reforms in Congress, but his ultraconservative vice president, Victoria Villarruel, has made a career out of defending the military's reputation. Some believe there may now be an attempt to bring the institution back out of the barracks.
FOR BUSINESS. Argentina’s military is nowhere near its former size or influence. Milei would need time, as well as intent, to build an armed counterweight to an obstructionist legislature. But following trends in Mexico, El Salvador, and elsewhere, this can’t be ruled out. In the meantime, the markets will remain Milei’s best support. And even if he can’t change Congress, planned state asset sales may help him remove Peronism from the corporate sector.