Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
NATO. RUSSIA. Moscow’s alleged needling risks a crisis.
CENTRAL ASIA. Idle threats and aircraft deals don’t herald a US return.
THE PHILIPPINES. Two powerful storms converge on Manila.
BRAZIL. Lula's rift with Washington could help him in New York.
ARGENTINA. Milei seeks a bailout that could be worse than the IMF.
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NATO. RUSSIA. Fighting chances
Moscow’s alleged needling risks a crisis.
Western and Russian diplomats clashed at the UN Security Council Monday over alleged airspace violations. The Kremlin accused Estonia of fabricating claims to whip up tensions. Drones disrupted flights at Copenhagen and Oslo’s airports.
INTELLIGENCE. All recent incidents have a degree of plausible deniability, but it would be implausible if Moscow were not seeking to test Western unity and resolve. Russia has long claimed it is already at war with NATO, whose members fund and arm Ukraine. The grey zone tactics it's alleged to have employed, from cyber incidents to drone and aircraft incursions, are from an established playbook. What’s not established is how far it’s willing to go.
FOR BUSINESS. The incidents could increase ahead of Sunday's elections in Moldova, but they're unlikely to be linked to recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, whose effects have been less clear. The key metric is the US’s response. Moscow has pre-empted its censure by offering a one-year extension to the nuclear New START treaty, which the White House said sounded "pretty good." Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov are due to meet this week.
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CENTRAL ASIA. One night ‘stans
Idle threats and aircraft deals don’t herald a US return.
Donald Trump heralded new airliner and locomotive kit sales to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. The Taliban urged the US to follow "realism and rationality" after Trump warned of "bad things" should Kabul not give back the Bagram Airbase.
INTELLIGENCE. There may be a strategic element to Trump's recent Central Asian
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