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Here are the five things you need to know today:
MOLDOVA. Putin’s hopes for a new vassal have been thwarted.
DENMARK. The Kremlin goes from tests to provocation.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Tony Blair for Gaza is as improbable as it sounds.
IRAN. New sanctions give hardliners, and China, an opportunity.
MOROCCO. Gen Z protests arrive in the Maghreb.
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MOLDOVA. Not for turning
Putin’s hopes for a new vassal have been thwarted.
The ruling Party of Action and Solidarity was in a comfortable lead Monday morning after parliamentary elections failed to unseat the pro-EU government. Pro-Russian parties accused the government of ballot-stuffing and discrimination.
INTELLIGENCE. President Maia Sandu warned of Russian disinformation throughout the campaign, making it hard for pro-Russian voices to argue on merits. They are now accusing the government of fraud, noting a lack of polling stations for expatriates in Russia to vote (two versus 12 in the US), and the result’s divergence from prior polling. These claims can be expected to increase in the coming days, particularly in the regions of Gagauzia and Transnistria.
FOR BUSINESS. Gagauzia and Transnistria, dominated by ethnic Turks and Russians, could see attempts at hybrid warfare, in the guise of Ukraine’s Crimea and Donbas in 2014. So at least claim members of Sandu’s government, who see Moldova as Europe’s frontline against Russia (despite it not yet being part of the EU or NATO). For its part, the Kremlin will likely keep its options open. Disruption is possible, but will be difficult without land access via Ukraine.
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DENMARK. Something rotten
The Kremlin goes from tests to provocation.
Denmark banned civilian drone flights Sunday after more alleged incursions were reported at military facilities. NATO said it would increase patrols in the Baltic. Part of Poland’s airspace was closed due to “unplanned military activity.”
INTELLIGENCE. Russia denies involvement, but unless these are UFOs, it’s hard to
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