Schrödinger's war
Iran, the US, NATO, Israel, and Rwanda.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Markets exist between greed and Epic Fury.
UNITED STATES. Trump’s tanking approval is no April Fool’s gag.
NATO. Europe isn’t leaving the alliance; the alliance is leaving it.
ISRAEL. Netanyahu risks a breakup with his biggest trading partner.
RWANDA. Kigali plays resource diplomacy against Washington.
And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.
IRAN. Persian cat bounce
Markets exist between greed and Epic Fury.
Markets rallied on reports Trump would walk away from the war without opening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said "Iran doesn't have to make a deal" and the US would leave "very soon". An address to the nation was scheduled for 9 pm ET.
INTELLIGENCE. Asian markets followed Wall Street’s rally, but oil also climbed early Wednesday, as traders digested the obvious conclusion that any premature US exit won’t fix Gulf security. Iran must ensure it can deter US aggression. Hormuz is its best weapon. It will see skittish markets as proof of its own escalation dominance, not Trump’s. In an absurd war, animal spirits can both be alive and dead. The reaction to Wednesday night’s speech may prove this too.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump has said the war is about to end at least a dozen times over the past month. He has claimed to be winning dozens more. A Kabul-style exit is the last thing he’ll want. There’s thus as much chance he’ll announce a ground attack, with the hope it’ll be over by Easter. Marines are now positioned. A third aircraft carrier is en route. There’s even talk about the “logic” of nuclear weapons (albeit not Iran’s). Watch what Trump does, not what he says.
UNITED STATES. No joke
Trump's tanking approval is no April Fool's gag.
Trump released a video of his proposed presidential library, hours after a judge halted his $400 million ballroom and polls put his support at a low of 33%. Trump said he would attend today’s Supreme Court hearing on birthright citizenship.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump is looking to the future, whether in retirement (his skyscraper-