Seeing if it sticks
Venezuela, Mexico, the UK, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, and Palestine.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
VENEZUELA. War aims shift to other addictions.
MEXICO. Sheinbaum mollifies Trump, but keeps her options open.
BRITAIN. A technology pact is suspended, for now.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Markets may be mistiming a deal.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu goes on the defensive offensive.
And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.
🎄Upgrade your subscription or give it as a gift to access all five daily briefings, five days a week, as relied on by leaders and investors across 160 countries.🎄
VENEZUELA. Mass distraction
War aims shift to other addictions.
Donald Trump designated fentanyl a “weapon of mass destruction” Monday, giving agencies more powers to combat it. Venezuela’s PDVSA was hit with a cyberattack, halting oil deliveries. JetBlue recorded a near miss with a US air tanker.
INTELLIGENCE. Pressure continues to build on Caracas. Fresh from negotiating the release of political prisoners, Belarus’s president told US media the “door was open” for Nicolas Maduro to move there (even if he “is not the sort of person who leaves”). Trinidad has offered the US access to its airports. Moves against Maduro continue to be couched in the terms of narcotics, but they increasingly seem about oil, or at least political pressure for its own sake.
FOR BUSINESS. Justifying pressure on Maduro in terms of drugs never stacked up, and the National Security Strategy makes clear the US isn’t hung up on values or democracy (at least in places like Venezuela). Changing Venezuela’s regime for access to its heavy crudes is unnecessary (though it might help). Oil prices are already at 2021 lows. The likeliest reason is that, having committed to action, Trump must act. News-junky-in-chief, he abhors a media vacuum.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy. Learn more about how we can help you to map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks.
MEXICO. Calming the waters
Sheinbaum mollifies Trump, but keeps her options open.
A new agreement on managing the Tijuana River was signed Monday as extra water deliveries began to Texas. Mexico defended its decision to raise tariffs of up to 50% on China, India, South Korea, Brazil and other non-FTA trading partners.
INTELLIGENCE. The measures are designed to please the US as talks on a