Sermons on the mountebanks
The US, Ukraine, Russia, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Cambodia, and WMDs.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. Trump’s State of the Union hints at the next nine months.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. As Europe marks the last four years, China eyes the next.
JAPAN. SOUTH KOREA. Tokyo fortifies as Seoul diversifies.
THAILAND. CAMBODIA. A contrived conflict may resume.
ARMS CONTROL. As rules give way to deals, the world gets more dangerous.
UNITED STATES. The king’s speech
Trump’s State of the Union hints at the next nine months.
Donald Trump told Congress he had ushered in a “golden age”, with “plummeting” inflation and crime. Virginia’s governor gave the Democrats’ response, saying Trump’s 100-minute address was filled with lies, distractions and scapegoating.
INTELLIGENCE. While the longest State of the Union in history, by Trump’s recent standards, the speech was focused, presenting a typical pre-midterms exposition of his achievements, real or imagined. He didn’t seem perturbed by Epstein, tariffs, or low approval ratings. Pledges on healthcare, datacentre power usage and income tax will likely be forgotten. The most notable parts were what was said on Iran, welfare fraud in Democrat states, and voter cheating.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump pivoted his warnings on Iran from nuclear weapons (“obliterated”) to missiles (which Tehran refuses to discuss), providing new casus belli if required. After the ICE debacle in Minnesota, he has pivoted to spending fraud (“Somali pirates”), putting JD Vance in charge (if things go wrong). The return to election cheating can be seen beyond ID laws. If the midterms don’t go his way, as expected, he can repeat 2020, with a stronger hand.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. The eastern front
As Europe marks the last four years, China eyes the next.
European leaders visited Kyiv on the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion. The UN called the war a “stain on our collective conscience” as the General Assembly split over a vote on Ukraine’s integrity. Friedrich Merz visited Beijing.
INTELLIGENCE. Europe emphasised unity in Kyiv, but the UN vote, agreed by 107 out