Setting the trap
Iran, Cuba, the US, the Czech Republic, and the UN.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Pressure builds on the periphery, but strikes remain uncertain.
CUBA. Trump hints at a deal in a dialogue of one.
UNITED STATES. The Democrats win a prize, but a long road looms.
CZECH REPUBLIC. Babis’s coalition hits a speedbump.
UNITED NATIONS. Guterres grapples with a fate worse than bankruptcy.
Geopolitical Dispatch is a daily strategic briefing for business leaders and investors, based on the US Presidential Daily Brief. Covering five top global developments at 5 am Eastern Time, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you visibility of events in context.
IRAN. Surround sound
Pressure builds on the periphery, but strikes remain uncertain.
Tehran warned of a regional war Sunday should the US strike though it denied plans to hold drills in the Strait of Hormuz. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said European militaries would be designated as “terrorist organisations”.
INTELLIGENCE. Qalibaf, a favourite to take power should the theocracy under Ali Khamenei collapse (or end with the death of the 86-year-old supreme leader), is demonstrating his nationalist credentials after the EU proscribed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps last week. Yet his is not the only shadowboxing at play. As Iran and the US alternate between claiming a desire to talk and a readiness to fight, strange things are happening along Iran’s borders.
FOR BUSINESS. Donald Trump doesn’t seem to have a goal in mind. His tactics may simply be to get MAGA to swallow Obama-era policies. Yet he continues to probe, notably along the borders. There’s been an uptick in US outreach to Turkmenistan. Fighting has broken out between Islamabad and Iran-backed Balochi militants. Iraq is under diplomatic pressure. Iran is also dragging others in. Qatar’s prime minister visited. Ankara wants to host talks.
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CUBA. Fidel sticks
Trump hints at a deal in a dialogue of one.
Donald Trump said Cuba would likely “come to us and want to make a deal” as energy analysts estimated it only had three weeks’ worth of reserves after oil transfers stopped. Pope Leo urged dialogue between Havana and Washington.
INTELLIGENCE. Like Iran, Trump seems to be testing Cuba mainly to see what