Shahed across the bow
Iran, Libya, the US, Colombia, and Silicon Valley.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Hardliners attempt to scuttle US talks.
LIBYA. The post-Gaddafi era reaches a new phase.
UNITED STATES. The hunt for Epstein’s secrets goes global.
COLOMBIA. Trump and Petro get along just fine.
TECHNOLOGY. The humans strike back.
Geopolitical Dispatch is a daily strategic briefing for business leaders and investors, based on the US Presidential Daily Brief. Covering five top global developments at 5 am Eastern Time, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you visibility of events in context.
IRAN. Rocking the boat
Hardliners attempt to scuttle US talks.
An F-35 jet shot down an Iranian Shahed drone heading towards the USS Abraham Lincoln, the Pentagon said Tuesday. Iranian boats approached a US tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said it wanted to hold talks in Oman, not Turkey.
INTELLIGENCE. Tehran hardliners are both probing for weaknesses ahead of negotiations, scheduled for Friday, and testing if they can delay or distract the US. While Iran’s presidency, as in 2025, is keen to talk to the West (whether or not intentions to decommission nuclear stockpiles are genuine), not everyone in the regime agrees. Parts of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would prefer isolation to continue, if not an outright battle with the US and Israel.
FOR BUSINESS. As in all states, there’s a spectrum between those who wish to engage and those who wish to fight. In between are those who just want to play for time, whether to exploit sanctions loopholes, wait for the US to give up, or find out who replaces Khamenei. Trump has suggested he won’t be perturbed. He doesn’t want war, but needs an outcome now he’s amassed a fleet. And he may enjoy the escalatory theatre, particularly if it helps him look tough.
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LIBYA. Not Saif for work
The post-Gaddafi era reaches a new phase.
Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of the late dictator, was killed by unknown gunmen, his lawyer said Tuesday. Eastern warlord Khalifa Haftar visited Islamabad Monday, with speculation that Pakistan would open a consulate in his de facto capital.
INTELLIGENCE. Haftar, who runs Libya’s east from Benghazi, controls much of the