Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. Trump signals control by going over the edge.
EUROPE. Brussels faces its own enemy within.
BRITAIN. Starmer gives a speech, but now must act.
HAITI. The UN votes to expand its underfunded mission.
DR CONGO. Peace remains elusive as Kabila is convicted of treason.
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UNITED STATES. The spectacle is the message
Trump signals control by going over the edge.
Futures fell Wednesday as a government shutdown commenced. Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth gathered military leaders Tuesday to berate “fat generals” and urge a focus on “the enemy from within”, particularly in Democrat-run cities.
INTELLIGENCE. The theatre is self-inflicted. But while drama makes for good TV ratings, it doesn’t for credit ratings. A prolonged shutdown and a politicised military may give Trump more positional leverage, but will only discourage investment and damage economic growth. Bureau of Labor Statistics data from August showed a softening jobs market Tuesday. It could be the BLS’s last release for a while. Separately, nominee EJ Antoni has been withdrawn.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump wants to show his base and adversaries that he’s in control, but by pushing US institutions to their limits, he could end up losing it. Government shutdowns, one of which lasted 35 days in 2019, have historically had little impact on investors, but today’s market is priced to perfection, with the S&P 500 exceeding an adjusted PE of 40 for the first time since the dot-com boom, and the total market cap now exceeding GDP by 218%, a new record.
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EUROPE. Hole in the wall
Brussels faces its own enemy within.
Leaders arrived in Copenhagen Wednesday for an informal summit on defence. Germany, Finland, Sweden and France earlier sent military personnel to assist with alleged drone incursions. The EU pledged €2 billion for drones in Ukraine.
INTELLIGENCE. With Ukraine, the EU wants to build a “drone wall” to deter potential
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