Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Both sides risk losing control of the strait.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu sounds alarms he once ignored.
SPAIN. Sanchez hardens on foreign arrivals and investors.
BRAZIL. With polls a toss-up, Lula tries his Hail Mary pass.
MYANMAR. The Rohingya again fall victim to realpolitik.
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IRAN. Double bypass
Both sides risk losing control of the strait.
Officials spoke indirectly again Tuesday as Tehran said Washington was "trapped in a quagmire." Donald Trump claimed oil flows from Hormuz were now above pre-war levels while authorising another 40-million-barrel strategic oil release.
INTELLIGENCE. JPMorgan says regional flows are back at 98% of pre-war levels. Kpler estimates 80%. Irrespective, it would seem the US military’s “bypass shuttle”, using smaller ships to smuggle out crude at night, must be working, despite the occasional Iranian pot shot and mine. Yet if this were the case, another SPR loan, with inventories already at 44-year lows, wouldn’t be needed, Brent wouldn’t be back at $103, and both sides wouldn’t be preparing to escalate.
FOR BUSINESS. Shuttle diplomacy hasn’t found an off-ramp. Armed shuttle escorts signal emergency, not normality. And the IRGC, prioritising deterrence above the economy, is looking to hold out at least until after the midterms, having asked Americans to punish Trump at the polls. Trump is warning of high fuel prices at least until then. Rumours abound that Iran is biding time for an October surprise, while being secretly paid to let bypass flows through.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Warning shots
Netanyahu sounds alarms he once ignored.
Riyadh denied it met with Benjamin Netanyahu in Abu Dhabi, where he reportedly gave warning of Iran’s ambitions. Israel’s opposition downplayed Netanyahu’s claims of “possible attacks on various fronts” ahead of October’s election.
INTELLIGENCE. Netanyahu is renowned for crying wolf. His warnings of an Iranian