Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. The Oman lane shuttle service comes under attack.
HORN OF AFRICA. The region is on the cusp of an all-out conflict.
DR CONGO. An ex-president tries to rebrand a guerrilla war.
TAIWAN. Beijing uses drills and sanctions as a warning.
MYANMAR. Min Aung Hlaing continues his rehabilitation tour.
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IRAN. The ships are down
The Oman lane shuttle service comes under attack.
Brent futures briefly hit $107 after six tankers were reported struck in the Strait of Hormuz shuttle system and Riyadh cancelled all flights for a week. Israel was preparing to join Saudi Arabia’s campaign against the Houthis, Haaretz said.
INTELLIGENCE. Beyond risking the Houthis in Yemen and Iran in Hormuz, Gulf exports can only make it out via pipes to the Arabian Sea or trucks to Turkey. The US’s Hormuz shuttle will likely continue, but unless shippers are willing to join it, the risk of another collapse in flows is real. This raises the odds of precipitous escalation, though so far Donald Trump’s threats have largely been empty. It’s meanwhile unclear if Saudi Arabia would actually want Israel’s help.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump is trapped in a zugzwang, at least until the midterms. Any move only leads to bad options. He may see the war in Ukraine as easier to solve, including to get more oil and diesel out of Russia. Yet Kyiv seems unwilling to let Moscow sell without a cost, particularly after reportedly losing access to US intelligence. Moscow, for its part, is meanwhile trying (improbably) to get Riyadh and Tehran to agree to a new collective security framework.
HORN OF AFRICA. Borderline
The region is on the cusp of an all-out conflict.
Eritrea called for UN intervention as Ethiopian troops neared the border, pushing back rebels from the Tigray People's Liberation Front. Egypt was blamed for killing dozens of artisanal miners in Sudan. Ethiopia opened its first gold refinery.
INTELLIGENCE. Sudan’s civil war is partly funded via artisanal gold sales to the UAE.