Signal in the noise

The US, Greenland, Denmark, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, the Balkans, Venezuela, and Guyana.

Telephone in a dish with three grilled sardines, Salvador Dali, 1939, oil on canvas, Dali Museum, St Petersburg, Florida.

The five things you need to know today:

• UNITED STATES. A leaked group chat reveals more than just shoddy OPSEC.

• GREENLAND. DENMARK. Claims of a friendly visit get an icy reception.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. The Kremlin’s approach of delay and discussion is working.

• TURKEY. BALKANS. Europe scolds, but regional clout speaks louder.

• VENEZUELA. GUYANA. Trump and Rubio turn the heat back on.

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UNITED STATES. Then what?

A leaked group chat reveals more than just shoddy OPSEC.

A Signal group containing sensitive Red Sea war plans had mistakenly been shared with the editor from The Atlantic, the White House confirmed Monday. At several points in the chat, questions of “extracting” allied compensation were raised.

INTELLIGENCE. It's unlikely anyone will lose their job for the leak, intentional or not, but beyond the poor operational security, the more disturbing revelation was the discussion on whether allies "deserved" US intervention in the Red Sea and, "if Europe doesn't remunerate, then what?" As Trump adviser Steve Miller wrote: "If the US successfully restores freedom of navigation at great cost there needs to be some further economic gain extracted in return."

FOR BUSINESS. Whether justified or not, to many allies and adversaries, US foreign policy looks increasingly like a protection racket. And against fresh uncertainty on US trade policy (the president has suggested April's "Liberation Day" tariffs may be more targeted), another invitation has been sent for allies to treat. Many countries will be tempted to kiss the ring, which will only embolden such tactics. The EU’s trade chief is due to meet Howard Lutnick today.

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GREENLAND. DENMARK. Cold comfort

Claims of a friendly visit get an icy reception.

Donald Trump said this week's separate visits by Second Lady Usha Vance and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz were "purely friendship" after officials in Nuuk, Copenhagen and Brussels hit back at “highly aggressive” "provocation".

INTELLIGENCE. The visits won’t win over many Greenlanders and are more likely about US domestic politics. But