Signed, still sealed, undelivered
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, the G7, the UK, and Myanmar.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Schrödinger’s deal is, for now, a mutual carte blanche.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Netanyahu once again has his back against the wall.
GROUP OF SEVEN. The West endures, one diplomatic summit at a time.
BRITAIN. Starmer accelerates the push against social media.
MYANMAR. Naypyidaw reopens to the neighbours but not the world.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.
IRAN. Anything is possible
Schrödinger’s deal is, for now, a mutual carte blanche.
Donald Trump said his deal with Iran was electronically signed Sunday and details would be released after Friday’s formal ceremony in Geneva. Trump said an agreement to pay Iran $300 billion was “fake news, put out by the Dumocrats”.
INTELLIGENCE. JD Vance, certainly no Dumocrat, earlier said Iran “could have access to” $300 billion, which Iranian reports say was critical to getting the IRGC to agree to a ceasefire extension. But whatever it is, a deal that continues to drive a share market rally and oil market rout remains as ephemeral as an e-signature. Several more (Iranian) ships have crossed Hormuz, and mine removal is due to begin, but at least three vessels were fired upon early Tuesday.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump says ships have started to move, but most international carriers are yet to resume transit. And even when they do, the spigots will take time to turn back on, particularly in the case of LNG where hard shutdowns and infrastructure damage could take months, if not years, to undo. US data, released Monday, meanwhile, shows the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 43-year lows. Trump will hope his claims are less fake than the Dumocrats’.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. 'til it's over
Netanyahu once again has his back against the wall.
Benjamin Netanyahu defended the war and downplayed any rifts with Trump as the opposition and ex-defence officials excoriated his “absolute failure”. Fighting continued with Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon, albeit at a reduced pace.
INTELLIGENCE. Netanyahu says the “struggle” is not over, and he won’t resile from