Sinking ships
The US, Iran, Israel, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, and China.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. IRAN. The Senate torpedoes its offramp.
ISRAEL. IRAN. Stakes rise in the missile campaign.
TURKEY. IRAN. Ankara must balance its interests with its allies.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. As Putin plays for energy, Zelensky now plays for time.
CHINA. The ‘Two Sessions’ parliament faces some real choices.
UNITED STATES. IRAN. Getting seasick
The Senate torpedoes its offramp.
The Senate voted 53-47 not to advance a resolution to end the war in Iran. Texas’s Republican primary would advance to a runoff. Pete Hegseth said Iran was “toast” after a US submarine torpedoed an Iranian corvette off Sri Lanka.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump is bullish on the war (“15 out of 10”) but not on his ability to hold the Senate in the midterms. He has said that out of Ken Paxton and John Cornyn in the Texas race, whoever he doesn’t endorse must drop out. But the Iran war, not factional infighting, is at this stage the biggest risk to a Republican majority, particularly if oil prices stay high and as deaths mount. And while the US may dominate the high seas, it remains stymied in the Gulf.
FOR BUSINESS. Iran’s navy has been decimated, but it’s still preventing the US from resupplying in Bahrain. It is also preventing shipping through Hormuz. Qatar has stopped LNG production. Saudi Arabia’s biggest refinery remains on fire. Several commercial ships have been struck, and the Pentagon is spending $1 billion a day for reasons yet unknown. A $50 billion supplementary budget request will reportedly be tabled to replace the munitions expended.
ISRAEL. IRAN. Nuclear options market
Stakes rise in the missile campaign.
Missile attacks on Jerusalem and Tel Aviv continued as Iran threatened Israel's Dimona nuclear site and the IDF said it was planning another 1-2 weeks of operations. Polymarket removed a bet on nuclear detonation after a public outcry.
INTELLIGENCE. The odds of a nuclear explosion reached 22% before the market was