Sitting on a bayonet
Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Morocco, and India.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. A pause amid a buildup and the horns of a dilemma.
SAUDI ARABIA. The Houthis give something to chew on.
ISRAEL. In Syria and Lebanon, Netanyahu exercises his options.
MOROCCO. Mohammed VI plays tricks at both ends of the Sahara.
INDIA. Modi’s effort to win back young voters won’t be easy.
Try the full Geopolitical Dispatch — offer ends Friday!
Throughout July, free subscribers can activate a full 30-day trial of Geopolitical Dispatch, including the complete Daily Dispatch, Week Signals, our Private Monthly Roundtables and Quarterly Outlook Briefing.
IRAN. Tactical TACO
A pause amid a buildup and the horns of a dilemma.
Donald Trump cancelled strikes over the weekend due to diminishing interceptor stocks, the New York Times said. The strikes were cancelled due to Omani-brokered talks, Axios said. Iran said it would halt its attacks if the US did the same.
INTELLIGENCE. Irrespective of the pause’s reason, oil futures reacted as if peace is at hand, dropping 7%. Yet Hormuz remains closed, Trump continues his social media threats, and more military assets arrive each day. Even if the war remains politically unpopular and economically risky, Trump will be tempted to use the tools made available to him. From Napoleon to Putin, the maxim that you can’t sit on bayonets has held. And they, at least, had impulse control.
FOR BUSINESS. Diplomacy may take its course, but it’s unlikely to arrive, at least for the US, at a better outcome than the Islamabad memorandum signed on 17 June. Whether in interceptors, oil reserves, or days to the midterms, all Trump’s numbers are down. Tehran is playing hardball. Amid another reported tanker explosion, and threats to kill a US soldier for every civilian, it is rejecting talks on other issues until the US first affirms its ownership of Hormuz.
SAUDI ARABIA. Tit-for-qat
The Houthis give something to chew on.
Bab-el-Mandeb traffic fell to the lowest level in months after Yemen’s Houthis hit a Saudi Aramco refinery at Jazan and Riyadh struck the Houthi-held port of Hodeidah. More China-linked tankers containing Saudi crude nonetheless passed.
INTELLIGENCE. With Hormuz strikes paused, the Red Sea is now the war’s hottest