Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Half a year in, Trump’s options narrow.
PAKISTAN. Broke, needy, and a rising power.
INDIA. Multi-alignment reaches its limits.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Washington cuts off Kyiv, not Moscow.
FALKLAND ISLANDS. Burnham faces his inner Thatcher.
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IRAN. Hard choices
Half a year in, Trump's options narrow.
Oil extended gains as Donald Trump said he would hit Iran “hard” after a strike on regional US bases. Daily Hormuz traffic remained low. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll reportedly resigned after clashing with Pete Hegseth over military firings.
INTELLIGENCE. Driscoll’s departure will leave the army, in wartime, without a secretary or a chief of staff. Driscoll’s deputy undersecretary is expected to quit as well. It comes as the Pentagon plays down reports that Hegseth has regularly overruled military advice (which Iran presumably proves). His boss, at least, seems disinclined to make the ultimate captain’s call. Telling the media Monday that the idea of a nuclear strike on Iran was “a stupid question.”
FOR BUSINESS. Trump prefaced his answer with “they’re totally defeated militarily”, so rash moves can’t completely be ruled out. And with fewer officials to speak truth to power, guardrails are gone. Markets continue to fade calamity, even with oil back above $90, but Iran is still attacking ships, threatening US infrastructure (Naval Station Norfolk upped its security overnight) and teasing it will kill Trump’s family. Operation Economic Outcast is deterring no one.
PAKISTAN. The Mecca of defence
Broke, needy, and a rising power.
Islamabad said “six to seven” Muslim states had shown interest in the Mecca Defence Agreement as representatives from Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the founding members, announced its secretariat would be led by a Pakistani.
INTELLIGENCE. The secretariat will be in Riyadh, but that’s like NATO being in