Slamming the brakes
The US, China, Taiwan, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, and Mozambique.
The five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. The art of the possible vs the art of the deal.
CHINA. TAIWAN. War-war is just jaw-jaw, so far.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. As a peace deal nears, Europe reaches for an umbrella.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. The White House goes directly to Hamas.
MOZAMBIQUE. Post-election violence risks escalation.
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UNITED STATES. Motor City limits
The art of the possible vs the art of the deal.
Carmakers would not pay 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports for a month, the White House said Wednesday, with other exemptions "to be determined". The Supreme Court upheld an order for the release of $2 billion in foreign aid.
INTELLIGENCE. Reality is catching up with Donald Trump, whose approval ratings have turned negative for the first time since January, and who faces a bruising fight with Congress on the budget. Beyond these political constraints, industry lobbies are also hitting back. The auto exemptions are meant to be temporary, but supply chains can’t be rebuilt in a month. Fertiliser carveouts are said to be next. A call with Trudeau ended in a “somewhat friendly manner”.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump is stuck between looking weak and crashing the economy. He will need a theatrical coda to the trade war (or an equally sized distraction). And even if he's serious about using tariffs as a tool to reshape trade, many in his administration aren't (Howard Lutnick has been sending signals for days; others are pivoting to the idea of a new Plaza Accord). Stocks have rebounded but many analysts are now calling a top amid recessionary signals.
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CHINA. TAIWAN. Fighting words
War-war is just jaw-jaw, so far.
Pete Hegseth said Wednesday the US was "prepared" to go to war, after Beijing warned against tariffs. Li Qiang said China would advance reunification. The Senate grilled Pentagon nominee Elbridge Colby for his comments on Taiwan.
INTELLIGENCE. Colby is portrayed as a China hawk but could herald a more nuanced approach to Beijing leading