Slovakia: The ides of May
Also: the Netherlands, Israel, Turkey, Taiwan, and China.
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SLOVAKIA. The ides of May
An attempted assassination may have many motives, or none.
Prime Minister Robert Fico was in a stable condition late Wednesday after being shot five times during a visit to the central region of Trencin. The suspect, 71, was a security guard and poet who once founded a non-violence movement.
INTELLIGENCE. The Moscow-leaning Fico had predicted an assassination, which has fuelled conspiracy theories. His assailant was both a member of liberal and ultra-nationalist groups (one, a neo-Nazi pro-Russian militia). Internet sleuths have variously blamed the Kremlin, Ukrainian intelligence (the same accounts also allege an impending coup against Volodymyr Zelensky), the WHO, and Brussels. Ultimately, the real reason may have been mental illness.
FOR BUSINESS. Fico may earn some temporary sympathy from his opponents. Planned protests have been paused. EU leaders, who once decried his brand of populism (as much far-left as far-right), have joined Viktor Orban and Vladimir Putin in wishing him well. When Fico returns to work, he could be emboldened to accelerate Slovakia’s illiberal turn, particularly if the country’s economy – one of Europe’s strongest – shows no sign of slowing down.
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THE NETHERLANDS. Right on time
Wilders announces a brave new government.
Anti-migration politician Geert Wilders, whose Freedom Party (PVV) came first in November's election, announced a last-minute deal Wednesday to form government with three other parties, including that of outgoing leader Mark Rutte.
INTELLIGENCE. Rutte's VVD party had earlier refused to join a coalition led by Wilders, but as Rutte moves to take up an expected appointment as NATO's secretary-general, a compromise seems to have been reached, with Ronald Plasterk, a former minister of the centre-left Labour Party, expected to be named prime minister. The coalition, which also includes a farmer protest party, BBB, will be unwieldy and likely unstable, but preferrable to another election.
FOR BUSINESS. Dutch politics frequently throws up strange coalitions. There are currently 19 parties represented in the Dutch and EU parliament. More operate at the local level. The incumbent cabinet is led by the centre-right VVD, but includes the liberal progressive D66 and the socially conservative Christian Democrats. The fractal nature of Dutch politics, where every cause has a party, tends to favour centrist compromise. Wilders’ coalition may test this.
ISRAEL. Carrot and shtick
Netanyahu revives an unorthodox solution to Haredi enlistment.
Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday he would revive a 2022 bill to lower the age of military service exemption for religious school students from 26 to 21. This would "very slowly" raise the rate of ultra-Orthodox enlistment, he said.
INTELLIGENCE. The war in Gaza has preoccupied foreign attention on Israel, but for Netanyahu's fragile coalition, the issue of whether to conscript ultra-Orthodox Haredi Jews is just as central. Netanyahu appears to have made a classic fudge – his political longevity is ascribed to tactics of fence-sitting and delay – but it may end up failing to satisfy anyone, leading to the issue’s eventual re-emergence. Then again, that may be what the prime minister wants.
FOR BUSINESS. Controversies that divide and distract but make little immediate difference to security or prosperity, favour Netanyahu. Haredi enlistment is one such issue, which Netanyahu has been compelled to act on by the courts. His bill, on the surface, makes it easier for Haredim to avoid enlistment, but by compelling them from the Yeshivas – where deferred study provides its own exemption – to the workforce and mainstream life, he can have it both ways.
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TURKEY. Lurkey in the shadows
Allegations of a coup plot and a secret Hamas base.
Four senior police officers were arrested Wednesday on charges of "conspiracy against politicians". President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told lawmakers in Ankara that Israel would "set its sights on Anatolia" unless it was stopped in Gaza.
INTELLIGENCE. Erdogan has doubled down on support for Hamas, including by admitting that 1,000 of the group’s fighters are being treated in Turkish hospitals. This is despite a report in The Times Monday that Hamas was planning a secret base in Turkey, on which to launch attacks on Israeli targets, including in NATO countries. All this may need to be taken with a grain of salt – including reports of a thwarted coup attempt – but underlines a liking for erraticism.
FOR BUSINESS. Throughout his two decades in power, Erdogan has made wild claims and oscillated between the West, Russia, and the Middle East. A return to quasi-friendship with Israel cannot be ruled out – and there have already been exemptions made to his recent trade ban – but for now he judges a pivot to Hamas will bring him more support domestically, where he faces Islamist rivals, and abroad, where Ankara is vying with Tehran and Riyadh for influence.
TAIWAN. CHINA. How to annoy your dragon
The US sends a warship and former officials to celebrate democracy.
Washington announced a senior delegation Wednesday to next week's inauguration of Taiwan's president-elect Lai Ching-te. Taipei said it had detected 45 PLA aircraft within its air defence identification zone and six warships nearby.
INTELLIGENCE. The Chinese assets are partly a show of force ahead of Lai’s inauguration and partly a response to the USS Halsey, which transited the Taiwan Strait last week. More forceful measures can be expected in the days ahead, and potentially in response to the US’s swingeing tariff announcements on Tuesday, but none of this signals an invasion of Taiwan, which is neither feasible nor in Beijing’s interests. China wants to unsettle, but not provoke.
FOR BUSINESS. There are many easier ways for Beijing to deter Taipei’s attempts at further de facto independence. Chief of these is by continuing to court Taiwanese industry and the opposition Kuomintang, which controls Taiwan’s legislature. Taiwan is already highly integrated into China’s economy. The mainland, including Hong Kong, represents around 30% of total trade, versus the US at 13%. Including trade in controlled goods, the real figure is probably higher.
Slovakian shooter Juraj Cintula proved himself that it was Fico’s policy that had forced him to appeal to radical actions. Especially, his refusal to support Ukraine.
Naturally, it could be just insanity of an elderly man (Cintula is 71-year old), except for one detail. His wife is a Ukrainian refugee, nationalist, and active participant of Euromaidan 2014. Trying to leave for Warsaw she was detained by Slovakian law enforcers.
Sure, she could influence Cintula’s ideas. But it’s also clear, that the flow of refugees that were welcomed with widespread compassion in 27 European countries getting housing, finance aid and comprehensive support without visas is an easy target for the Ukrainian intelligence agency to deploy an enhanced network in Europe. And if the Ukrainian trace is proved than who will be the next?
Wilders? Orban? Siyarto? By the way, the latter has already been threatened by the Ukrainian nationalist in January.
It stands to reason that Ukraine is eager to force the entire world to the war against Russia. But it’s also clear that the Europeans should decide themselves the stage of their involvement to the conflict. And the pressure by Kyiv with radical terrorist methods is absolutely inappropriate.