Snake oil
India, Ukraine, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the DRC.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
INDIA. The US trade truce is less than meets the eye.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. The resumption of strikes will complicate talks.
IRAN. Trump’s team prepares to meet the regime.
SAUDI ARABIA. THE UAE. A regional rift goes global.
DR CONGO. Washington’s minerals strategy faces a reality check.
Geopolitical Dispatch is a daily strategic briefing for business leaders and investors, based on the US Presidential Daily Brief. Covering five top global developments at 5 am Eastern Time, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you visibility of events in context.
INDIA. Like a charm
The US trade truce is less than meets the eye.
Indian benchmarks and the rupee soared Tuesday after Donald Trump and Narendra Modi announced a deal to cut US tariffs from 50% to 18%. Trump said Delhi had agreed to end Russian oil purchases and buy from the US and Venezuela.
INTELLIGENCE. The deal may not be the breakthrough the market thinks. Cancelling purchases of Russian crude, while already down, will take months. US grades will need to be blended to meet Indian requirements. Venezuelan grades are similar to Urals, but aren’t yet as abundant. Distrust between Delhi and Washington persists. Inconsistency in US tariffs is assumed. Trump called Modi one of his “greatest friends,” but the feeling is far from being mutual.
FOR BUSINESS. Details are scant, but Trump says Modi agreed to buy $500 billion in US goods, which seems heroic. Modi, meanwhile, hasn’t confirmed (though hasn’t denied) any pledge to end Russian oil imports. Frustration may not take long to sink in. The deal appears, in part, a rushed reaction to the EU’s more substantial FTA. One thing it will do, however, is dispel rumours that US ambassador Sergio Gor, whom Elon Musk once called a “snake”, is a Kremlin spy.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Ceasefire desists
The resumption of strikes will complicate talks.
Massive strikes on Kyiv’s energy infrastructure resumed early Tuesday, as temperatures fell to -20°C. Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday a dignified and lasting peace was “realistic”. Peace talks were due to recommence Wednesday.
INTELLIGENCE. The talks were originally due to start Sunday but were postponed at