Snatching quagmire from the jaws of surrender
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, the Pacific, Colombia, and Ebola.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. The war continues, as intractably as ever.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. As the past is recaptured, the future departs.
THE PACIFIC. The US talks up its commitments while reneging on them.
COLOMBIA. A hard-right candidate emerges as the surprise favourite.
EBOLA. Suspected cases pop up in Brazil and Italy.
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IRAN. Back we go
The war continues, as intractably as ever.
The US confirmed “self-defence strikes” on Iranian targets after an MQ-1 drone was shot down. Kuwait came under renewed attack. Tehran denied President Masoud Pezeshkian had quit. An IRGC general was reportedly assassinated.
INTELLIGENCE. After last week’s fall in oil prices, crude is trading higher amid tension in the Strait and threats from the White House. The impasse over nuclear transfers, asset seizures and Hormuz tolls remains. Solutions have been offered, but zero-sum thinking and political constraints on both sides make these hard to sell. With the Hajj now over, the risk of a return to real fighting is as likely as a renewal of a fake ceasefire. Both sides are reinforcing their blockade.
FOR BUSINESS. Primed for a TACO, oil could fall again should Trump or the IRGC float another peace balloon, but the options for a near-term end to the war are narrow. Even a 60-day reopening of the Strait seems increasingly unlikely, with the blockade seen in Tehran as the regime’s only strategic deterrence (and of a non-nuclear variety). Concerns over US munition stockpiles persist, but Pete Hegseth claims these are sufficient to recommence a full-scale attack.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Medieval reenactment
As the past is recaptured, the future departs.
Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the IDF to expand its “manoeuvre” after it seized the 12th-century Beaufort Castle. Local media said more reservists were being called up. The Israel Innovation Authority said more startups were moving abroad.
INTELLIGENCE. The crusader stronghold was last held when Israel occupied