Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Indicators rise of a predictable spooking.
SYRIA. Pressure from Jerusalem pushes Damascus to Mecca.
DR CONGO. A roadmap paves an improbable peace.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv’s standards advantage Moscow.
CANADA. Carney will find out if Trump’s bluffing on trade.
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IRAN. Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow
Indicators rise of a predictable spooking.
Tehran warned “not a single drop” of oil would leave Hormuz if the US went through with plans for an “economic D-Day”. A British gas plant was taken offline after a hack blamed on Iran. Pakistan’s military chief travelled to Tehran for talks.
INTELLIGENCE. Scott Bessent is due to outline “the single greatest financial offensive ever marshalled” at 2 pm in Washington, but Asim Munir’s visit – reportedly to deliver a new US peace proposal – may buy time. If so, it would be yet another Monday-morning retreat, which Brent futures are already pricing in, having fallen as much as $2 in overnight trade. If not, it’s anyone’s guess how the US can further punish Iran without punishing China, and the world.
FOR BUSINESS. A crash in the rial and higher domestic fuel prices may tempt Bessent and Donald Trump to prove just how weak Iran in. GOP hawks are urging them to “finish the job”. But Tehran’s pain threshold remains high, and Washington’s ongoing effort to jawbone oil (including via an Axios report of 40 tankers exiting the Gulf – repudiated by satellite data) is a negotiating tell. Plus, from the yen to 30-year bonds, Bessent’s record of intervention is mixed.
SYRIA. Sunni or later
Pressure from Jerusalem pushes Damascus to Mecca.
Syria’s foreign minister met the head of Mossad during US-mediated talks, Syrian media said. Damascus earlier slammed Israeli attacks on civilians in the south. US envoy Tom Barrack retracted suggestions the Golan Heights were occupied.
INTELLIGENCE. Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani’s trip to Jordan on Sunday, where