Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

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Geopolitical Dispatch
South Korea: Suk-yeol and see
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South Korea: Suk-yeol and see

Also: France, Britain, Ukraine, Russia, and the DRC.

Michael Feller's avatar
Michael Feller
Dec 16, 2024
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Geopolitical Dispatch
South Korea: Suk-yeol and see
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Waiting, Shin Yun-book, c1805, watercolour, Kansong Art Museum, Seoul.

The five things you need to know today:

  • SOUTH KOREA. Yoon is impeached but remains defiant.

  • FRANCE. The new prime minister faces his first big test.

  • BRITAIN. A silver lining for Brexit, eight years on.

  • UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Oil and electricity dominate the frontline.

  • DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO. Another truce fails.

Get full access to all five daily briefings, weekly analyses, and private webinars—at 50% off this December. Upgrade today for the only daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.

SOUTH KOREA. Suk-yeol and see

Yoon is impeached but remains defiant.

Twelve members of President Yun Suk-yeol's People's Power Party joined a second impeachment vote Saturday, more than the two-thirds threshold required. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo became acting president. Yoon vowed to fight on.

INTELLIGENCE. The impeachment makes it clearer who’s currently in charge. Han is a technocrat who has worked under five presidents and worked swiftly Sunday to reassure markets and allies (including Joe Biden by phone). Yet Yoon, supported by a hard-core of allies, has vowed to stay on and should a separate case against opposition leader Lee Jay-myung continue, there’s the chance an earlier impeachment threat against Han could also be relaunched.

FOR BUSINESS. The uncertainty in Korean politics is not over. Impeachment could take months. Multiple scenarios remain possible for Korea’s economy. The opposition is giving Han the benefit of the doubt, but Lee’s Democrats are unlikely to be satisfied until Yoon steps down and a new election is called (not otherwise due until 2027). This could in turn see a radical change in foreign policy. The US alliance will likely stick, but the accord with Japan is less certain.

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FRANCE. Blue Bayrou

The new prime minister faces his first big test.

Francois Bayrou said he would meet party leaders Monday as a first step to forming government. Moody's downgraded France's credit rating Friday from Aa2 to Aa3. Hundreds were thought dead Saturday on the French island of Mayotte.

INTELLIGENCE. Moody's downgrade was not the only shock to greet Bayrou, hours after his appointment. Cyclone Chido, while

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