South Korea: Where there's smoke
Also: Syria, the EU, Uruguay, China, Paraguay, India, and Bhutan.
The five things you need to know today:
SOUTH KOREA. Rumours of another declaration of martial law.
SYRIA. Assad faces few good options with his territory divided.
EUROPE. URUGUAY. With Macron in retreat, trade with Mercosur looks possible.
CHINA. PARAGUAY. Beijing goes after Taipei’s leading diplomatic partner.
INDIA. BHUTAN. Mindful of the neighbourhood, Delhi plays it safe.
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SOUTH KOREA. Where there's smoke
Rumours of another declaration of martial law.
The opposition Democratic Party scheduled an impeachment vote for Yoon Suk-yeol Saturday after the president’s martial law order Tuesday. Protests intensified as local media said another martial law declaration was being planned.
INTELLIGENCE. It’s possible the rumours, amid separate reports that soldiers’ leave has been cancelled, are simply designed to bring more Koreans to the streets and ensure the impeachment succeeds. With sufficient seats in the National Assembly, Yoon’s People’s Party has vowed to block it, but its leader has called for Yoon to be removed, citing alleged evidence the president had planned to have key political figures arrested before martial law was lifted.
FOR BUSINESS. Yoon’s unpopularity won’t be saved by martial law. Even if he succeeds with an effective coup, his eventual ousting is almost certain. The US maintains 28,000 troops in South Korea. They won’t get involved, but martial law would embarrass establishment Washington as it seeks to draw clear lines between Asia’s democracies and their adversaries in Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang. It would also be seen disastrous for regional supply chains.
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SYRIA. Hama meets anvil
Assad faces few good options with his territory divided.
Turkish-backed rebels seized Hama Thursday, following Aleppo’s recapture. Syrian, Iraqi, Iranian foreign ministers would meet Friday, Baghdad said. Damascus was being encouraged to reconcile with Ankara, regional media reported.
INTELLIGENCE. Vladimir Putin is allegedly trying to broker a deal between Bashar al-Assad and Tayyip Erdogan. At risk are