Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

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Speak loudly and carry a small carrot
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Speak loudly and carry a small carrot

Ukraine, Russia, the EU, the UK, Israel, Palestine, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Australia.

Michael Feller's avatar
Michael Feller
May 20, 2025
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Geopolitical Dispatch
Geopolitical Dispatch
Speak loudly and carry a small carrot
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Oha, vier puure! (Oh, what a brave man!) H Schmidt, c. early 20th century, postcard, Aargau Canton Archives, Switzerland.

The five things you need to know today:

  • UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Harsh preferences are revealed on Ukraine.

  • EUROPE. BRITAIN. Starmer unlocks a Brexit conundrum.

  • ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu seeks a return to 2005.

  • EQUATORIAL GUINEA. GABON. Libreville loses an island in oil-rich waters.

  • AUSTRALIA. The centre-right fractures again.

Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in 150 countries.

UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Cards on the table

Harsh preferences are revealed on Ukraine.

Donald Trump said Vladimir Putin had agreed to "immediate" ceasefire talks after a two-hour call Monday. The Kremlin said it would work with Kyiv on "a memorandum on a possible future peace accord,” on which no deadline could be set.

INTELLIGENCE. In usual fashion, Trump heralded the call as a breakthrough, even if Ukraine-Russia discussions are already underway. But what Trump's announcement revealed was that the US was no longer interested in taking part ("this is not my war") and that further sanctions, as proposed by Germany, are not in scope ("if you do that, you can also make it much worse"). Moreover, he hinted at "large-scale" trade with Russia. No mention was made of tariffs.

FOR BUSINESS. Putin also revealed his preferences, even if they're of no surprise: Russia will continue to fight until it fully occupies the Ukrainian provinces it has declared to annex. And by playing along, so has Europe. The EU is set to reimpose farm tariffs on Kyiv. Germany’s Taurus missiles have been put on the back burner. NATO has dropped Zelensky’s invitation to its summit in June. Italy has welcomed the idea of the Vatican holding the next round of talks.

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EUROPE. BRITAIN. Piecemeal of cake

Starmer unlocks a Brexit conundrum.

Sterling and the FTSE 100 rose Monday after a series of deals were agreed during the first EU-UK summit since Brexit. A defence pact was struck as an EU diplomat said members had separately agreed to a joint €150 billion security fund.

INTELLIGENCE. Despite the claims of Nigel Farage and more excitable parts of Fleet Street, the deals fall far short

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