Stocks, not strikes
Iran, Israel, Ethiopia, China, Ukraine, and Russia.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. The war heads towards its Lehman moment.
ISRAEL. Vance airs his views ahead of Netanyahu’s visit.
ETHIOPIA. Another dilemma in the Horn of Africa.
CHINA. A meddling claim could have big consequences.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Zelensky sacks a champion of drone warfare.
Try the full Geopolitical Dispatch — free for a month
Throughout July, free subscribers can activate a full 30-day trial of Geopolitical Dispatch, including the complete Daily Dispatch, Week Signals, our Private Monthly Roundtables and Quarterly Outlook Briefing.
IRAN. Revenge is reserves cold
The war heads towards its Lehman moment.
Crude rose for a fourth day as Gulf attacks kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and the Energy Information Agency reported the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 316 million barrels. Tehran denied claims that it was seeking a deal.
INTELLIGENCE. With the release of a US citizen, Donald Trump has suggested a deal may again be at hand, but his jawboning is starting to falter, as traders increasingly look to the SPR, which, should it go below 300 million barrels, could potentially see structural damage to the salt caverns in which it’s stored. Irrespective of whether he’s escalating or de-escalating, so long as Hormuz flows are stuck, the inventory problem will become the chief narrative of the war.
FOR BUSINESS. As in 2008, a problem could turn into a crisis if the plumbing breaks. And as low SPR stocks come into view, the salt domes of the Gulf of Mexico could feature more in analysis than the radar domes of the Persian Gulf. Trump’s inventory management could also become more of an election risk than his military blunders. This will only be compounded by allegations Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have made $9 billion from market manipulation.
ISRAEL. How to lose friends
Vance airs his views ahead of Netanyahu's visit.
JD Vance told Joe Rogan Israel was trying to “derail negotiations” and “change American public opinion to keep the war going on indefinitely”. Vance also claimed Jeffrey Epstein “had connections to the highest levels of Israeli intelligence.”
INTELLIGENCE. With Vance now clearly identifying with MAGA’s Israel sceptics,