Stone age, glass houses
Iran, the US, the Vatican, Hungary, China, and Taiwan.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump’s rolling threats are being turned against him.
UNITED STATES. More loyalists are sacked to encourage the others.
THE VATICAN. An American pope goes after an apostate president.
HUNGARY. A plot less Guy Fawkes than guy-walks-into-bar.
CHINA. TAIWAN. Reunification advances without a shot fired.
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IRAN. The ultimatum price
Trump’s rolling threats are being turned against him.
Tehran rejected a ceasefire proposal advanced by Islamabad Monday, responding with its own ambit claims. Donald Trump pushed back a deadline to "open the f***in' strait" to Tuesday, promising to otherwise “take out” Iran in one night.
INTELLIGENCE. Parts of the market may still listen to Trump, but every unmet threat becomes less credible, and Iran seems to be as convinced of its victory as he is. This game of chicken threatens to become yet more dangerous with Israeli strikes on energy infrastructure overnight threatening to force Trump’s hand, and Iran responding by attacking Kuwaiti desalination plants. A complex rescue of two F-15 airmen over the weekend has failed to shift the narrative.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump may have bought time with the dramatic rescue of an F-15 pilot and weapons officer, but at the cost of not just the jet, but two C-130s, four (possibly six) helicopters, an A-10 attack aircraft, and an MQ-9 drone. As a microcosm of the war’s cost asymmetries, it is a caution against a ground invasion, but equally, its qualified “success” may encourage such a move. So long as both sides think they’re winning, the war is unlikely to quickly end.
UNITED STATES. Fortnight of the long knives
More loyalists are sacked to encourage the others.
Intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard, FBI director Kash Patel, and commerce secretary Howard Lutnick were speculated for the chop after Attorney General Pam Bondi was sacked Thursday, a week after homeland security secretary Kristi Noem.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump appears to have sacked Bondi and Noem less for disloyalty than for media and Congressional performance as his ratings tank and factions within MAGA vie for influence. Ahead of the midterms, Trump must build a new post-Epstein, post-tariffs and post-Iran coalition as the combination of voters who brought him to power last year dissolves. Led by JD Vance, a renewed focus on fraud and waste might become that coalition’s rallying cry.
FOR BUSINESS. A 42% proposed hike to the Pentagon’s budget, and a 10% cut to discretionary spending elsewhere, would be a tricky pre-midterms sell, even without war and inflation. But if Trump makes such spending look unwanted, and assembles a fresh team ahead of a khaki election, he’ll have a better chance of avoiding a complete wipeout. The risk that narrative, however, may be another set of sackings in the military, including army chief Randy George.
THE VATICAN. Primate colours
An American pope goes after an apostate president.
Leo XIV condemned "those who have the power to unleash wars" during his first Easter as pope. Trump was criticised for various religious invocations. The Pentagon attracted debate for allegedly dropping a Catholic Good Friday service.
INTELLIGENCE. Catholics don’t hold mass on Good Friday, but instant controversy over an alleged “Protestant only” service speaks volumes about current interfaith relations and could further alienate a significant slice of Trump’s Republican base. Likewise, popes will frequently criticise secular rulers, but the fact the pope is an American adds fuel to the US culture wars. With Marco Rubio and JD Vance both Catholics, this could be a future headache for them.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump must not only juggle the interests of increasingly vocal Jewish, Evangelical and Catholic supporters, but encourage mainstream midterm turnout (ideally in his favour), including through religious catchcries. His ironic use of “Praise be to Allah” in an Easter Sunday post may not have been what the median voter wanted, but he’s said worse and survived. The real risk is how his obnoxious behaviour further divides the US from everyone else.
HUNGARY. Orban myth
A plot less Guy Fawkes than guy-walks-into-bar.
Viktor Orban called an emergency meeting Sunday after claiming Serbia had discovered explosives at a Russian gas pipeline near the border. Moscow blamed Kyiv though Serbia's intelligence chief said there was no evidence of this.
INTELLIGENCE. Orban’s claims of Ukrainian perfidy have grown increasingly ridiculous, but even a false flag as blatant and predictable as this one may help him in Hungary’s linguistically isolated and politically controlled media sphere. Orban doesn’t so much need to win, which seems unlikely, as to prevent opposition leader Peter Magyar from taking enough parliamentary seats to dismantle an Orbanist deep state that will otherwise stymie the next four years.
FOR BUSINESS. Orban will only be 66 when the 2030 elections come around. If Magyar is forced to govern with his hands tied, then Orban’s Fidesz Party could return even stronger, just as Poland’s hard-right Law and Justice party did after the centrist Donald Tusk’s first term from 2007 to 2014. Orban will be reminded of the power of a comeback when JD Vance visits this week. Alongside the Kremlin, the Trump White House has been Orban’s top foreign backer.
CHINA. TAIWAN. Loyal opposition
Reunification advances without a shot fired.
Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun visited China for a "historic journey for peace" Tuesday, the first such visit by a Kuomintang leader in 10 years. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party said Cheng was "cooperating with communists".
INTELLIGENCE. The KMT, or Chinese Nationalist Party, which ruled the mainland before 1949, is from the centre right. Cheng, who completed her studies in the US and UK, is certainly no communist. Yet her leadership of the party builds on an appeal to shared Chinese heritage, as well as a fear, including among business, that President Lai Ching-te’s pro-independence rhetoric has provoked an unnecessary crisis with Beijing alongside a distracted Washington.
FOR BUSINESS. Lai and the DPP blame Cheng and the KMT for blocking a $40 billion defence spending plan, much of which was earmarked to purchase new US missiles. Yet as these supplies get chewed up in Iran, forcing delays to existing contracts, fewer Taiwanese may end up blaming her if de facto reunification becomes the default option. Engaging with China, and shaping the terms of an economic détente, may seem less like duplicity than pragmatism.
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Best,
Michael Feller, Chief Strategist
michael@geopolitical-strategy.com
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