Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump’s diversions only postpone a resolution.
VENEZUELA. An oil deal will help insiders, not supply.
SPAIN. A migrant crisis will need a new approach.
BRITAIN. Farage’s party goes back to the margins.
ESTONIA. New leaders face old problems.
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IRAN. This is getting old
Trump’s diversions only postpone a resolution.
Tehran launched strikes on Kuwait early Thursday in another response to earlier attacks. Donald Trump proposed renaming Hormuz “Trump Strait” so “like America itself, it would be ‘hotter’ than ever before.” Brent hovered around $95.
INTELLIGENCE. As with Canada and “Lake America”, Trump is proposing gimmicks in the absence of strategy. And like Canada as well, the theatre is delaying real progress. Not that Trump has many conventional paths to resolution left, as Iran looks to wait out the president until the midterms, if not the 2028 election. Between a win-lose TACO and a lose-lose nuclear attack, extending a war of attrition with a regime playing for keeps merely delays the inevitable.
FOR BUSINESS. Oil prices are unlikely to meaningfully fall as long as Trump remains trapped in Iran’s zugzwang. Price declines on previous TACOs and the 17 June ceasefire may come and go, but they won’t be enough to change prices at the pump. Trump called in refiners to complain about crack spreads Tuesday, but this only saw diesel go higher. A lack of refining capacity and a minimal lift in US production (due to policy uncertainty) remains immutable.
VENEZUELA. Friend at Betancourt
An oil deal will help insiders, not supply.
Chevron, Eni and GE Vernova pledged to expand output as Washington and Caracas signed a deal to give the US access to 17 oilfields. The US earlier agreed a separate deal with local billionaire Alejandro Betancourt over a fifth of reserves.
INTELLIGENCE. Betancourt built his fortune via contracts under Hugo Chavez and