Strait, cross, hook, uppercut
Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Russia, the US, and Venezuela.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Amid strategic confusion, Trump struggles to land a blow.
SAUDI ARABIA. Riyadh faces problems that money cannot fix.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv wins online while losing on ground.
UNITED STATES. Warsh asks for price stability, but not yet.
VENEZUELA. Caracas and Washington collude to keep Machado out.
Try the full Geopolitical Dispatch — offer ends tomorrow!
Throughout July, free subscribers can activate a full 30-day trial of Geopolitical Dispatch, including the complete Daily Dispatch, Week Signals, our Private Monthly Roundtables and Quarterly Outlook Briefing.
IRAN. Taking a beating
Amid strategic confusion, Trump struggles to land a blow.
The US struck dozens of targets Wednesday after Donald Trump told Fox he would “beat the f*cking sh*t” out of Iran. Israeli officials said Trump discussed his options with Benjamin Netanyahu. US oil inventories fell by 11 million barrels.
INTELLIGENCE. The US retaliation to Iran’s attack on a Jordan air base does not, at least yet, match Trump’s rhetoric, but CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper has reportedly requested a two-week “surge”. This would contradict reported interceptor shortage fears, but offence may now be a better defence in an otherwise widening and seemingly intractable conflict. Israel is also reported to have urged greater action, but is sensitive to claims of undue influence.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump may personally want to strike hard, and may harbour latent fantasies of taking Kharg Island, but he doesn’t want military body bags, or oil at $150. Still, now that he’s begun the war, he must end it, and unless he wants to capitulate on the June ceasefire terms that remain contested (i.e., who controls Hormuz), he will need to escalate. As US crude stocks continue to fall, Trump won’t be the only one frustrated with the strategic confusion.
SAUDI ARABIA. Battle Riyal
Riyadh faces problems that money cannot fix.
Iraq's prime minister cancelled a visit to Riyadh after Saudi and US forces killed 20 members of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, a Shia paramilitary. Riyadh was canvassing an international coalition to counter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
INTELLIGENCE. Riyadh reluctantly returned to the war after Tehran-backed militants