Strait face

China, Taiwan, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, the US, and Mexico.

Fisherman by Plum Trees, Gu Haoqing, c. early 19th century, ink and colour on paper, Indianapolis Museum of Art at Newfields.

The five things you need to know today:

• CHINA. TAIWAN. Taipei is in a bind as Washington puts interests above values.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. The US tables sanction relief as a reward for peace talks.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Hamas’s cruel provocation is aimed at Riyadh.

• UNITED STATES. The Senate faces a moment of reckoning.

• MEXICO. A hot war could be safer than a trade war.

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CHINA. TAIWAN. Caught in the transaction

Taipei is in a bind as Washington puts interests above values.

US support was “very strong”, Taiwan said Thursday. Donald Trump said a trade deal with China was "possible" and he expected Xi Jinping to visit. Officials were considering a nuclear pact as part of negotiations, the New York Times said.

INTELLIGENCE. Some have argued a retreat from Ukraine will allow for a pivot to East Asia. But the logic of ceding the Donbas to Russia applies almost equally to Taiwan for China. Should Trump be serious about great power entente and defined spheres of influence, it's not unimaginable that Taiwan's defence could be traded in any grand bargain. Taiwan’s naval significance is being eclipsed by technology. Trump sees its chipmakers less as a friend than a foe.

FOR BUSINESS. Donald Trump Jr said the US should avoid “poking the dragon” Tuesday, in remarks supporting the nomination of China hawk Elbridge Colby. This presumably means on issues like democracy and human rights, which the administration has been less vocal on, rather than tariffs and business restrictions, which the State Department’s website has been reworded to focus on. Amid Pete Hegseth’s call to shrink the Pentagon, Taipei should be worried.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Speak loudly and carry a big carrot

The US tables sanction relief as a reward for peace talks.

Russia could get sanctions relief for cooperating in talks, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday. The FT said the US blocked language on Russian aggression in the G7. A press conference with Volodymyr Zelensky was cancelled.

INTELLIGENCE. A G7 statement is just a piece of paper but speaks volumes. A separate report the US had refused