Strange TACOs in the bazaar
Iran, Israel, Sudan, Hungary, and private credit.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump may be done with war, but war isn’t done with him.
ISRAEL. Netanyahu faces his toughest coalition challenge yet.
SUDAN. The civil war threatens to spill over.
HUNGARY. Orban gathers the patriots for a final campaign.
PRIVATE CREDIT. Fear and volatility shake an opaque asset class.
And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.
IRAN. Neither fish nor foul
Trump may be done with war, but war isn’t done with him.
Donald Trump ordered a pause on striking Iranian energy infrastructure after claiming "very good and productive" talks. Iran’s parliamentary speaker said this was "fake news" designed to manipulate oil markets. A Texas refinery caught fire.
INTELLIGENCE. Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is speculated to have engaged with the US via Pakistan. Media says he may soon speak with JD Vance as part of a deal where he will be recognised as Iran’s de facto ruler. This is unlikely to be acceptable to IRGC hardliners. As 4,500 Marines head to the Gulf, Trump’s TACO is thus likely more about destabilisation than negotiation. And while he wants to control the narrative, he can’t afford to act the plaintiff.
FOR BUSINESS. If Iran senses weakness, it’ll just as likely escalate as talk, but Trump’s claim will at least allow more political narratives to coexist, letting him appear to negotiate while fighting, or win while losing. The cause of the fire at the 380,000-barrel-per-day Valero Port Arthur refinery is unknown. IRGC-linked social media blames Mossad. Either way, the speed with which many have jumped to conclusions shows how tenuous any faith in a future truce may be.
ISRAEL. Diverge of a breakdown
Netanyahu faces his toughest coalition challenge yet.
The IDF hit Iran just after Trump announced talks. Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel’s “vital interests” would not be harmed. Turkey said the US and Israel seemed to be “diverging”. Israel’s finance minister called for annexing southern Lebanon.
INTELLIGENCE. Bezalel Smotrich said just as Israel controls half of Gaza it should