Syria: Damascene coercion

Also: the US, Georgia, Romania, and Chad.

The Conversion of Saint Paul on the Road to Damascus, Parmigianino, 1527, oil on canvas, Kunsthistorisches Museum, Vienna.

The five things you need to know today:

• SYRIA. Erdogan puts pressure on Assad. Putin can repay the favour.

• UNITED STATES. Trump’s warning to the BRICS suggests a weak hand.

• GEORGIA. The president steps on a constitutional landmine.

• ROMANIA. The far right gets closer to the top.

• CHAD. N'Djamena ends cooperation with Paris.

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SYRIA. Damascene coercion

Erdogan puts pressure on Assad. Putin can repay the favour.

Crude edged up Monday after Turkish-backed rebels took most of the city of Aleppo Saturday, as well as the main highway to Damascus. Russian jets helped Syria’s Assad regime launch a counteroffensive. Iran promised assistance.

INTELLIGENCE. With Bashar al-Assad’s main allies, Russia and Iran, distracted with Ukraine and Israel, the Islamist militia Tahrir al-Sham has picked an opportune time to recapture Aleppo, which has been under the president’s control since 2016. But holding onto the city of 2 million will be hard without Turkish air support, which risks a reprisal of late 2015, when a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24. Recep Erdogan and Vladimir Putin held a phone call last week.

FOR BUSINESS. While Russian forces supporting Assad appear to have been stunned by the attack (Moscow has now allegedly sacked its local commander), there’s every chance the Kremlin was pre-warned. Erdogan will want to force Assad to the negotiating table (his olive branches have been ignored for several months now), but he won’t want to unnecessarily annoy Putin, particularly after US sanctions on Gazprombank risk 40% of Turkey’s gas imports.

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UNITED STATES. Swimming against the currency

Trump’s warning to the BRICS suggests a weak hand.

Donald Trump threatened BRICS members with 100% tariffs Saturday if they "create a new BRICS Currency" or "back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar". Trump hosted Canada’s Justin Trudeau at Mar-a-Lago Friday.

INTELLIGENCE. Threats to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada seem to have had their desired effect, with border pledges made by