Syria: Getting serious
Also: Israel, Morocco, Germany, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Indonesia.
In today’s dispatch:
SYRIA. Assad’s rehabilitation will have consequences for Israel, and Iran.
ISRAEL. MOROCCO. A relationship of mutual benefit endures.
GERMANY. The AfD creates a third far-right parliamentary group.
BANGLADESH. MYANMAR. Visits to China are made at a critical moment.
INDONESIA. The president-elect eyes new priorities.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
SYRIA. Getting serious
Assad’s rehabilitation will have consequences for Israel, and Iran.
Flights resumed from Syria to Saudi Arabia Wednesday after a 12-year gap. The foreign ministers of Syria and Turkey were due to meet in Iraq, regional media said. Turkey's president said he'd invite Bashar al-Assad to visit "any time".
INTELLIGENCE. Syria’s re-engagement with its Sunni neighbours reflects both al-Assad’s stronger domestic position after a brutal decade-long war, as well as ongoing moves against Iran, his most strident backer. This could isolate Hezbollah, which has used Syrian positions in the Golan Heights, but also complicate Israel’s attacks on Syrian territory, which have been given a blind eye by Russia, al-Assad’s other ally, but may no longer be so easily tolerated.
FOR BUSINESS. As Syria returns to being a “normal” state, the region will have less tolerance for external actors to ignore its sovereignty. Besides personnel from Russia and Iran, parts of Syria are occupied by US and Turkish troops, supporting efforts to fight Islamist and Kurdish militants respectively (awkwardly, Syria’s Kurds work closely with US special forces). The Golan Heights, most of which was annexed by Israel in 1981, remains recognised as Syrian land.
ISRAEL. MOROCCO. I have many a friend in Casablanca
A relationship of mutual benefit endures.
Morocco will purchase a $1 billion spy satellite from an Israeli state firm, local media said Wednesday. Thousands rallied in Tangier Sunday after an Israeli warship docked there last month after being refused berthing by Spain.
INTELLIGENCE. Since ties were normalised in 2020 under the Abraham Accords, Israel and Morocco have deepened links, already well-established in defence. This has not