Syria: Just desertion
Also: South Korea, Ukraine, Russia, France, and Romania.
The five things you need to know today:
SYRIA. Assad flees Damascus but his replacement could be worse.
SOUTH KOREA. The president evades impeachment but risks a treason charge.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump ramps up calls for a ceasefire.
FRANCE. Macron’s guest, and the weather, rain on his parade.
ROMANIA. An election is cancelled with the lead candidate’s supporters arrested.
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SYRIA. Just desertion
Assad flees Damascus but his replacement could be worse.
Bashar al-Assad fled Damascus Sunday, as his army and Iranian and Russian backers melted away from Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist group with the tacit support of NATO member Turkey. Bashar later resigned as president from Moscow.
INTELLIGENCE. Assuming no side-deal existed, Russia and Iran may have been dealt a bigger blow in ten days than anything Ukraine or Israel could do in 1,000 days or ten months. Whether due to the regime’s brittleness, or Turkey’s aid to HTS, Assad’s fall puts Tehran and Moscow on the back foot for any future dealings with the US (which Donald Trump says should not be involved in Syria). Israel has taken up position in formerly Syrian parts of the Golan Heights.
FOR BUSINESS. Damascus fell without a fight, endangering Moscow’s bases on the Mediterranean and Tehran’s access to Lebanon, but this doesn’t mean HTS will have an easy time running Syria (if that’s what it wants) or Ankara’s newfound influence will last. HTS, a rebranded Al-Qaeda spin-off, has few real friends. Syria’s Kurds won’t so easily surrender. Syria’s Arab neighbours, for whom the war on terror continues, won’t want to see any HTS regime succeed.
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SOUTH KOREA. Yoon only live twice
The president evades impeachment but risks a treason charge.
Yoon Suk-yeol’s People’s Power Party blocked his impeachment in the National Assembly Saturday, but prosecutors opened a treason investigation into the president’s decision to impose martial law. He was hit with a travel ban Monday.
INTELLIGENCE. Yoon claims to still be in charge – he emerged from hiding Sunday to accept his home minister's resignation – but