Syria: Leftover the edge
Also: Taiwan, China, Pakistan, India, Canada, Ethiopia, and Egypt.
In today’s dispatch:
SYRIA. Amid the focus on Lebanon, another conflict threatens to revive.
TAIWAN. CHINA. Beijing runs rings around Taipei.
PAKISTAN. CHINA. Li Qiang visits Islamabad after a spike in violence.
INDIA. CANADA. Delhi and Ottawa escalate a diplomatic spat.
ETHIOPIA. EGYPT. A dispute on the Nile can be traced to Somalia.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping companies map, monitor and manage geopolitical risk.
SYRIA. Leftover the edge
Amid the focus on Lebanon, another conflict threatens to revive.
Joint Syrian and Russian airstrikes killed 30 rebels in northern Syria Tuesday, local media said. Turkey killed four Kurdish militants as US forces were attacked near the Iraqi border in the east. Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets continued.
INTELLIGENCE. Syria’s government in Damascus, despite its longstanding links with Hezbollah and Iran, has tried to stay out of the conflict with Israel but could get sucked in should the political costs of quasi-neutrality prove too high. Conversely, there’s the risk of conflict with Turkey, despite attempts in Ankara to repair historic mistrust and align over Palestine and the Kurds. The risks of an accident between any of the players in a crowded field remain very real.
FOR BUSINESS. Israel, Russia, the US and Turkey have ways to deconflict in Syria but as the missiles fly, communication goes dark, and old certainties unwind there’s greater scope for strategic mistakes. In 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24M jet on the Syrian border. Bilateral relations crashed, as briefly did local markets. It was only nine months later that things smoothed over. Today the stakes are higher, and the allegiances more complicated.
TAIWAN. CHINA. Test run
Beijing runs rings around Taipei.
Taiwan released details Tuesday of China's "Joint Sword-2024B" military drills, where 153 aircraft surrounded the island Monday, in a daily record. At least 28 of those aircraft crossed the median line. Beijing said more drills could follow.
INTELLIGENCE. Beijing knows it can surround Taiwan and likely judges it can effectively blockade it too, with its preponderance in air and on water. Whether it wants to