TACO a break
Iran, Saudi Arabia, Romania, Chad, and Cuba.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Project Freedom is paused for unscheduled maintenance.
SAUDI ARABIA. Strategic diversification trumps the economic kind.
ROMANIA. A budget spat risks reopening the gates to Moscow.
CHAD. A spectre haunts one of the region’s more resilient regimes.
CUBA. The US is looking for a problem it can solve.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm helping businesses and investors to get ahead of the world. Connect with me on LinkedIn to learn more. And if you’re not receiving the full edition, upgrade below.
IRAN. Between projects
Project Freedom is paused for unscheduled maintenance.
Donald Trump said Operation Project Freedom would be “paused” at Pakistan’s request to allow for a “complete and final agreement” with Iran. Oil price sank. Tehran said it was surrender as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Beijing.
INTELLIGENCE. Project Freedom managed to escort at least two ships from Hormuz but was met with salvos at US vessels, commercial carriers, and the UAE. A Stratotanker was forced to make an emergency landing. Washington says the move gives peace a chance, with a warning having been sent. Tehran says Trump has chickened out. Ahead of Trump’s own visit, Araghchi’s trip to China suggests now may be the time for more durable third-party mediation.
FOR BUSINESS. With his current forces, Trump can’t risk military escalation at land or sea. He and Marco Rubio have said as much. Yet with the nuclear question still open, the US can’t be seen to retreat. Ongoing embargoes suit neither side. Iran is unlikely to buckle before the US. Negotiations led by China could provide an out, but it would presumably come at long-term cost to the petrodollar and US prestige. For short-term market relief, however, Trump may take it.
SAUDI ARABIA. LIV to fight another day
Strategic diversification trumps the economic kind.
Saudi Arabia recorded a Q1 budget deficit of $35.5 billion as defence spending rose by 25%. Riyadh's share of the LIV golf franchise was put on the market as its Desert Warrior film grossed just $500,000 against a budget of $150 million.
INTELLIGENCE. Eyeing Abu Dhabi’s success, Riyadh has embarked on a historic