Taiwan, China: Notional day
Also: Britain, Germany, the Caucasus, and Colombia.
In today’s dispatch:
TAIWAN. CHINA. Taipei celebrates its de facto independence with fewer friends.
BRITAIN. In the wake of Chagos, pressure is placed on Gibraltar.
GERMANY. The world’s third-biggest economy is poised to shrink further.
THE CAUCASUS. Moscow shifts its position yet again.
COLOMBIA. A financing probe rattles the president and the markets.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
TAIWAN. CHINA. Notional day
Taipei celebrates its de facto independence with fewer friends.
Tuvalu’s prime minister and officials from five other countries attended Taiwan's National Day address Thursday. The US warned China against holding drills after President Lai Ching-te's speech. China said Lai was the "true disrupter."
INTELLIGENCE. Washington has increased rhetorical support to Taipei in the run-up to elections, but beyond a $567 million military aid package – small by Pentagon standards – it’s kept in step with other countries in avoiding further entanglement. Total arms sales are down sharply from 2019 highs. Fears are rising over the safety of semiconductor supply chains. The US has largely stood idle as China has chipped away at Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies.
FOR BUSINESS. Taiwan has never been more important to the global economy, thanks to the demand for high-end chips, on which Taiwanese firms have a near-monopoly. But it’s never been more strategically isolated. Despite its economic challenges, China now vastly outguns the island on all military measures. The US has seldom been more stretched in other theatres. Diplomatic allies are few. When Tuvalu’s premier is your chief guest, you’re in trouble.
BRITAIN. Rock against the clock
In the wake of Chagos, pressure is placed on Gibraltar.
Spain urged the UK to sign a "generous" deal on Gibraltar Wednesday before a hard border comes into effect. Downing Street said the territory's sovereignty was non-negotiable after being criticised for relinquishing the Chagos Islands.
INTELLIGENCE. After last week’s decision to hand Mauritius the British Indian Ocean Territory – which includes a critical US base on Diego Garcia – Britain’s