Taiwan, China: Riders on the storm

Also: the US, Myanmar, the Caucasus, and coups in Africa.

Storm, unknown, late 19th century, gouache on paper, private collection, Belgium.

In today’s dispatch:

• TAIWAN. CHINA. A typhoon interrupts military exercises. Complacency does the rest.

• UNITED STATES. CHINA. Bombers off Alaska are just the tip of the iceberg.

• MYANMAR. CHINA. The junta makes an appeal to Beijing.

• THE CAUCASUS. Foreign interference in a combustive region gets complicated.

• AFRICA. Coups become more frequent, and more popular.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

TAIWAN. CHINA. Riders on the storm

A typhoon interrupts military exercises. Complacency does the rest.

Parts of Taiwan’s annual war drills were paused Wednesday as a typhoon made landfall. A trailer for a new drama about a Chinese invasion aired Tuesday. Beijing said Taiwanese expats had "nothing to fear" if they didn't break the law.

INTELLIGENCE. The yearly Han Kuang war games were supposed to be beefed up this year, following China's military buildup and recent remarks by Donald Trump seen by some as encouraging invasion. They will continue into Friday, but a raincheck on defence is never a good omen (even if necessary). An invasion remains unlikely, and Taiwan is protected by rough terrain, but complacency will only encourage coercion, including on Taiwanese firms in China.

FOR BUSINESS. The last week’s tech sell-off has highlighted the market’s rising awareness of Taiwan’s vulnerabilities but for now there are few alternatives for high-end semiconductor manufacturing. Many see this vulnerability as a strength – a guarantee Western militaries will come to Taiwan’s aid in the event of an attack – but China could easily test this assumption through measures short of war, such as a naval blockade, cyber-attacks, or hostage diplomacy.

---

---

UNITED STATES. CHINA. Strategic warning

Bombers off Alaska are just the tip of the iceberg.

US jets intercepted four Russian and Chinese bombers, which had entered Alaska's Air Defense Identification Zone Wednesday. Officials said Russian flights were not uncommon, but this was a first for China’s H-6 strategic bombers.

INTELLIGENCE. The two Xi’an H-6s, modelled off the Soviet-era Tupolev Tu-16, aren’t cutting-edge but, nuclear capable, they sent a message. Their appearance also