Taiwan, China: Strait edge

Also: Malaysia, Hungary, Sudan, the Emirates, and the DRC.

Picking coconuts from Taiwan fan she feng su (an album on the aborigines in Taiwan), unknown royal painter of the Emperor Qianlong, late 18th century, manuscript, Chinese Rare Book Collection, Library of Congress.

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TAIWAN. CHINA. Strait edge

Taipei bolsters its defences.

Only military strength could maintain peace, Taiwan's president said Wednesday as the US approved $360 million in drone and missile sales to Taiwan. Taipei said it was aware of a Chinese nuclear submarine seen in the Taiwan Strait.

INTELLIGENCE. The theoretical threat to Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty isn’t new but many foreign observers fear China could soon turn words to deeds and make an assault, or at least a blockade, on the island. A recent hardening of Taiwan’s defences makes this less likely, and there are many levers short of military conflict Beijing could yet employ to pressure Taipei. Still, amid a rising spat in the South China Sea, mistakes and miscalculations could occur.

FOR BUSINESS. It’s just as well conflict in the Taiwan Strait remains only a remote possibility. Nvidia, which relies on the island’s semiconductor manufacturers, this week passed Microsoft and Apple to become the world’s biggest company. To the chagrin of Beijing, Nvidia’s chief executive (a Taiwanese native) last week called the disputed territory one of the world’s most important “countries”. The terminology was wrong, but the sentiment was right.

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MALAYSIA. CHINA. Anwar’s BRIC in the wall

Kuala Lumpur gets closer to Beijing.

Malaysia wants to join the BRICS and Xi Jinping was an "outstanding" leader, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said Tuesday. Malaysia and China signed a new trade deal Wednesday during a visit by Premier Li Qiang to Kuala Lumpur.

INTELLIGENCE. English-speaking, Muslim-majority and with a maritime border dispute with China, Malaysia makes a perhaps unlikely partner for Beijing, but years of investment and economic gravity are paying off. And amid a relative decline in US interest, plus renewed public anger over Washington’s policies in Gaza, there’s been little pushback to Anwar’s proposal to join the BRICS, something which neighbouring Indonesia has ruled out, in order to join the OECD.

FOR BUSINESS. Alongside Singapore, history should make Malaysia the West’s best friend in Southeast Asia. It retains vestiges of this status – including an ongoing (but limited) defence pact with Australia and the UK – but like Thailand, another erstwhile US ally, it is drifting strategically and economically to China. Membership of the BRICS will further cement this status, even if it still has attractions as a competitive offshoring destination for Western firms.

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HUNGARY. Magyar it great again

Orban is no longer the only game in town.

Budapest launched the slogan "Make Europe Great Again" Tuesday for its rotating EU presidency, which begins in July. Opposition leader Peter Magyar said, like Prime Minister Viktor Orban, he would not support more military aid to Ukraine.

INTELLIGENCE. With MAGA sympathies, political longevity, and a habit of extracting concessions from Brussels, Orban seemed unstoppable until Magyar’s TISZA movement scored seven seats in the EU Parliamentary elections, to the 11 of Orban’s Fidesz-led coalition. And unlike Hungary’s traditional centre-left opposition, which has struggled to expand beyond Budapest, Magyar is a red-blooded populist, albeit one railing against alleged Fidesz corruption.

FOR BUSINESS. TISZA is new but its polling has doubled in the two months. Elections aren’t due until 2026, but if he can survive, Magyar has a chance of unseating Orban, who has otherwise dominated Hungary since the late 1990s. For pro-European liberals, however, this is unlikely to mean a radical shift in Hungary’s approach to the EU, Russia, or the world. Magyar is an ex-Fidesz member from a political dynasty with a similar appetite for strongman populism.

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SUDAN. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. Uncivil

A diplomatic clash over culpability for the war.

Envoys from Khartoum and Abu Dhabi argued at the UN Tuesday amid a debate on Sudan’s civil war. The UAE has been accused of arming the rebel Rapid Support Forces. The US called on the RSF to end its siege of North Darfur’s capital.

INTELLIGENCE. Some 800,000 refugees have fled to El Fasher and face imminent risk of starvation, among a larger population of 40 million the UN estimates are on the brink of famine. The war in Sudan is currently the world’s worst humanitarian disaster but it has largely gone unnoticed in the West. This is to the benefit of the UAE, which continues to walk an increasingly narrow path between its friendships with the US, Russia, China, and regional neighbours.

FOR BUSINESS. The UAE, which despite its hosting of sanctioned Russian money, has become a reliable US partner on Israel, is unlikely to be punished over Sudan (and, in any case, it vehemently denies involvement). The RSF’s halting advance may be punishment enough. Whereas the rebels seemed unstoppable earlier this year, an unusual coalition, notably Iran and Ukraine, has come to Khartoum’s aid. Moreover, this seems to have been recently joined by Russia.

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DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO. Rwanda why

Kigali isn’t the only cause of chaos, but it’s the main one.

Kinshasa had only itself to blame for the war in Congo, Rwanda's president said Monday. The Red Cross suspended aid to Kanyabayonga, as Rwanda-linked rebels closed in. Diplomats denounced another militia for killing 150 civilians.

INTELLIGENCE. Multiple actors are wreaking havoc and occupying mineral deposits in Congo’s east, which could impact tech supply chains (at least ethically, if not in delivery). Some, like the so-called Allied Democratic Forces, are linked to Islamic State. Others, like the M23 movement, are linked to Rwanda. Kigali denies this, despite the weight of evidence. In any case, it won’t be punished. The EU has recently funded Rwanda to fight IS in Mozambique.

FOR BUSINESS. Rwanda, which also has friends in the US and Britain (the latter thanks to its asylum deal), is an economic dynamo but its politics are increasingly autocratic. Two candidates were approved last week to run against President Paul Kagame on 15 July, but they are guaranteed to lose (he has won every election by 90% since taking power in 1998). Domestic iniquities can be ignored, but Kagame has become friendlier with Russia. The US will notice.